2014 Draft Review - The Lottery

[Sun Scorched]

With scouting for Marcos’ draft class heating up and an impending restricted free agency that’s sure to ruffle a few feathers, I thought it was finally time to review the 2014 draft class in all of its glory (staring with the lottery). I’ll drop some knowledge on all you young’uns too, in terms of the style of play you can expect from these guys as well as who they most closely model their game after. The "Tier" ranking is the back-end classification system that Myles and I used to build out the class - the methodology is below. Finally, I’ll hit you with a $2m range in which I think these guys get inked this offseason.

Tier Ranking Methodology
1 = Potential Franchise
2 = Potential All Star
3 = Potential Starter
4 = 6th man/Role player
5 = Rotation player
6 = Roster filler
7 = Welcome to the D-League

With that said, let’s jump into it!

#1 – Jabari Parker (6-9, 240) – Tier 1
The textbook number one selection, Parker has lit the league on fire. He’s great at one thing: Scoring. And he does it in spades. He’s currently the 3rd leading scorer in the league, less than a point behind LeBron at #2. It’s hard to argue with this pick, Parker is for sure max-worthy. It’s also great to see the number one pick still on the team that drafted him. Parker was designed after Carmelo Anthony.
Next Contract: MAX

#2 – Dante Exum (6-6, 196) – Tier 1
Exum had a ton of question marks swirling around his potential coming into the draft; still, Utah had the foresight to select the only other top-flight talent in the class at number two. Exum is currently posting one hell of a season: 21.6 points, 5.3 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 2.0 steals and 1.6 blocks. Wow. Can anyone say prime Dwayne Wade? I can – that’s who he was designed after. Say hello to your new max contract Dante.
Next Contract: MAX

#3 – Aaron Gordon (6-9, 220) – Tier 2
Gordon was modeled, as precisely as he could be, on a prime Shawn Marion; he’s great around the basket game complimented by overall scrappiness in play style. Gordon possesses the ability to guard most positions on the court and is an extremely efficient offensive player.
Next Contract: $10m - $12m

#4 – Nikola Jokic (6-11, 250) – Tier 2
One of my favorite players; No two ways about it, he’s the second coming of Dirk Nowitzki. That he has been under-utilized so far in his career is a shame, or perhaps it’s that teams didn’t stick around to discover his true potential. Either way, he’s beginning to do what he’s always been capable of in Charlotte, and it’s a dynamic, multi-faceted game.
Next Contract: $8m - $10m

#5 – Elfrid Payton (6-4, 185) – Tier 2
There’s no question that Payton has contributed in a big way to the stout defense Sacramento has been known for. Less Floor general and more game manager, Elfrid was modeled after the similarly named Gary Payton. With a tight handle and some of the best perimeter defense in the league, Payton has made a name for himself as a player that no opposing guard looks forward to playing.
Next Contract: $10m - $12m

#6 – Isaiah Austin (7-1, 235) – Tier 2
In addition to Phoenix being my favorite squad in real life, GreenBear has managed to draft and keep one of the most unique players in the league. Designed after LaMarcus Aldridge, Austin is the perfect stretch four. He may not rebound at the highest level, but he can score from anywhere on the floor and is an excellent weak-side shot blocker. He’s disciplined, intelligent and can get his teammates involved on offense as well. He has one of the better PPSA in the draft class.
Next Contract: $11m - $13m

#7 – Walter Tavares (7-3, 265) – Tier 2
The best center to come out of the draft in some time, Tavares is the spitting image of a young Tyson Chandler. How a player that shoots nearly 1.50 PPSA can continue to bounce around the league is anyone’s guess. He’s stuck in a time share in Dallas currently, but his Per36 numbers are some of the best in the entire rookie class.
Next Contract: $11m - $13m

#8 – Zach LaVine (6-6, 180) – Tier 2
If there was a player that could challenge the two stars in this draft, it’s LaVine. Though super raw upon entering the league, he possessed a rare skillset that made him a potential home run: The ability to stroke the long-shot and a willingness to let it fly. LaVine’s potential reminds me of Kobe Bryant with three point range.
Next Contract: I have no idea...

#9 – Dario Saric (6-10, 215) – Tier 2
Dario is such a unique talent and obviously was designed as a funky, position-less point-forward. Still, BI looks to have unlocked his potential – his Per36 numbers are awesome and he has one of the best basketball minds around. Think post prime Grant Hill.
Next Contract: $8m - $10m

#10 – Damien Inglis (6-9, 230) – Tier 3
When I think about how excited I am watching any of the prospects we designed 4 seasons ago play, it’s Inglis that tops the list. Why? He’s almost a direct clone of Nicolas Batum, a player who received a massive contract for his relatively rare skillset, 3&D baby! Ask that crap team in Cleveland how many times I’ve tried trading for Damien.
Next Contract: $7m - $9m (think about that)

#11 – Bogdan Bogdanovic (6-6, 205) – Tier 3
Perhaps it’s slightly disingenuous to liken a foreign prospect to one of the best foreign prospects to ever play the game, but here goes: I see a ton of Manu Ginobili in Bogdanovic. Perhaps that’s the reason he flies under the radar so much – he doesn’t seem to possess that one obvious “star” quality, yet he has (perhaps) the best overall skillset in the entire draft class. Get him going towards the basket and he’s either wining up at the line or the ball is in the hands of the guy scoring already.
Next Contract: $6m - $8m

#12 – Richard Solomon (6-11, 240) – Tier 2
I have no idea why Solomon slid to twelve. He was one of my favorite players in the draft. Solomon exhibits awesome DI/IQ, a willingness to score at an efficient clip, fantastic man defense, stout defensive rebounding and a STL/BLK per game. Kevin Garnett anyone? Yep. Exactly.
Next Contract: $11m - $13m

#13 – James Young (6-6, 210) – Tier 3
Here we come to another relatively underrated player. James Young does everything well. He may not have the range most desire from their starting shooting guard, but he generates an awesome 1.20+ PPSA (fantastic for a guard) and is a solid all-around defender. I can't remember who Young was modeled after, haha, sorry.
Next Contract: $8m - $10m

#14 – Bryce Cotton (6-0, 165) – Tier 2
Designed after a young Steve Nash, Cotton was inserted into the class almost as more of an experiment. Could a true floor general accomplish anything in the CSL with athletic combo guards at almost every turn? So far, three CSL champions have failed to feature a point guard of any prominence. Still, Cotton’s very obvious talents have created a cult following of sorts.
Next Contract: $10m - $12m

[Dennis]

I think Dougs list from a few weeks ago was pretty perfect. This class has up to 10 max guys. Okaro, Payne are missing here for example. They are both borderline tier 1 players. Maybe tier 1.5.
I think it was his RFA article.

[Mattybriand]

OKARO WHITE?!?!??!?

[Sun Scorched]

Guys..... this is the order of selection of the 2014 draft, so just the lottery for now.

This isn't a ranking, more of final insight into the types of players these guys were designed after.

@Dennis, yeah, I think it will be interesting to see some of the Tier 3 players that have really wound up being Tier 2 players, though I will tell you that I don't think either White or Payne are "Franchise" players.

[Dennis]

Yeah got it. I just do think Dougs list in another article was perfect for the salary predictions.
White is an absolute superstar for sure. Could I chose, I would prefer having white on my team over Westbrook any day. Riot can confirm that . Payne is faried 2.0. Since he's healthy again he's putting up 20/10/2.
And when Solomon gets 11-13m, both will get a max.

[GreenBear]

Really interesting article to see who these lottery guys were modeled after. Obviously some players have overachieved and underachieved, and it's pretty hard to pinpoint how much a player is going to go for in the offseason. Especially a year like this one, where there are so many quality free agents out there (both RFA and UFA). That being said, I'm really curious to see how many GMs get greedy and try to lowball their RFAs due to the market being what it will be (lots of FAs, not a ton of teams with cap space to spend on other teams' FAs), and some players take the 1-year tender instead of signing a below market contract. I don't think it's happened yet (to my knowledge), but it happens in single player mode, so I could see it happening in an offseason like this upcoming one.

As for our guy Austin, I must say I'm surprised to see that he was supposed to be LMA. I just don't see it when looking at the ratings. LMA has much better rebounding and scores a lot more, while Austin has much better ball skills (passing/handling) and much better blocking. I can't tell if LMA has Austin's range and just doesn't shoot 3s due to his prefs or not, so I'll leave that as N/A. Don't get me wrong, Austin is exactly what we expected when we drafted him. I actually remember this was a draft where we could ask the draft team a few questions about players, and he has pretty much been what you described him to me as. I just don't see him as LMA.

[RiotPunch]

Great stuff. I absolutely love Jokic, it's just a shame that he doesn't get to fully show what he can do since he's got Wiggins/Klay/Melo/Lin all in front of him competing for looks. He's had some epic outbursts this year though. He can really score when he's on.

[blackice]

Thought I commented on this, great stuff SS! Nice to see Saric getting some love, he's been my pet project since trading for him this season and boy has he produced. I generally agree with your comments on this class and the player comparisons are spot on. If I had to compare Saric to an NBA talent it would be Lamar Odom.

[Sun Scorched]

Thought I commented on this, great stuff SS! Nice to see Saric getting some love, he's been my pet project since trading for him this season and boy has he produced. I generally agree with your comments on this class and the player comparisons are spot on. If I had to compare Saric to an NBA talent it would be Lamar Odom.

You jogged my memory, which is awesome and I can't believe how spot on you were without knowing it, but Saric = Odom and Kyle Anderson = Grant Hill.

Haha. Nice BI. I lost Myles' and i's spreadsheet where we had all this. But Odom is correct.

[andrei]

Looking forward to bidding for the services of a few of these gentlemen during the offseason.

[Chilikonkarne]

Looking forward to bidding for the services of a few of these gentlemen during the offseason.

Nice, make these salaries predictions increase by few millions where they should be

Great article SS and what a deep draft!

[blackice]

Thought I commented on this, great stuff SS! Nice to see Saric getting some love, he's been my pet project since trading for him this season and boy has he produced. I generally agree with your comments on this class and the player comparisons are spot on. If I had to compare Saric to an NBA talent it would be Lamar Odom.

You jogged my memory, which is awesome and I can't believe how spot on you were without knowing it, but Saric = Odom and Kyle Anderson = Grant Hill.

Haha. Nice BI. I lost Myles' and i's spreadsheet where we had all this. But Odom is correct.

[hardenwithnod]

Thanks for posting this, as it defiantly helps newcomers like myself, as it will help me evaluate players for signing or trading! Great read once again!

[Myles]

Man I don't remember making any of these guys. I saw the article and immediately thought, "oh cool, my draft class!" but now looking back on it, I have no clue who I made or my rationale for damn near any of it haha. We definitely made this draft too strong though, that's for sure.

[wms02a]

I am super interested which of these players slides under the reader this FA and receives a below market deal. With so many good RFA it's going to be easy for some players to be forgotten.