What’s in the water in Phoenix?

[GreenBear]

Coming off back-to-back 50+ win seasons, Suns fans were looking forward to the team taking the next step. Going into the season, the team was far from a finished product (they still had a gaping hole at the starting center position), but there was a lot to get excited about. The team’s entire core from the 52-30 season had returned, and Wiggins was entering their 3rd season in the league (which typically results in a nice bump in stats).

Wiggins has taken the league by storm this season

As expected, Wiggins’s production has taken off this season: 17.8 ppg (48.3% shooting, and 42.8% from deep on 3.5 attempts/gm), 5.0 rebs, 1.5 blks, 0.9 stls, 86.0% DSR, and 0.80 PA/SF. In addition, the Suns finally addressed their center position with a trade for Bismack Biyombo from the Clippers. Biyombo is a low-scoring center with excellent rebounding and elite rim protection skills. His biggest criticism is that he doesn’t stay on the court long enough (regularly averaging in the upper 20 mpg as a starter throughout his career thus far), but the Suns front office expected this and believed pairing him with the reigning 6th man of the year runner-up Alex Len would turn a team’s strength into a weakness. And since the trade on New Year’s day (18 games), Biyombo has not disappointed: averaging 9.2 pts (on 46% shooting), 9.4 rebs (3.2 Orebs), 2.4 blks, and 0.7 stls on 30 mpg.

One would think that adding a guy with Wiggins’s all-star like production in addition to finally shoring up the starting center position to a 52-30 would result in an improved squad. Yet 48 games into the season and the Suns sit at a disappointing 27-21. So what gives?

Well, for one, the injury bug seems to have hit Phoenix and it has hit hard. The following players have missed games for the Suns so far this season:
- Delon Wright – 3 games (sore back)
- Brandan Wright – 7 games (sore arm)
- Hollis Thompson – 7 games (strained calf)
- Andrew Wiggins – 7 games (strained calf, sore knee and sprained toe)
- Bobby Portis – 12 games (sprained toe, strained hamstring, and sore calf)
- Isaiah Austin – 26 games (sore knee and broken nose)
- Trey Burke – 27 games (broken hand)
- Eric Atkins – 2 games (sore shoulder)

Burke was expected to play important minutes as a backup PG this season

That comes to a total of 91 games missed, and that’s a number that is easily going to eclipse 100 games in the next couple weeks with Portis out the next 3 days, and Burke and Wiggins out the next 12 days each. Without doing any research, we’re pretty sure this tops the league in games missed due to injury.

Some GMs will point out that the Suns are still in position to make the playoffs, and they haven’t suffered any season-ending injuries yet, so there’s a chance they go into the playoffs healthy, despite not being healthy at virtually any point during the season. But the frustrating part isn’t just that the Suns will have a lower seed come playoff time (which is a huge factor in the playoffs, just ask the Rockets, who needed game 7 wins at home to take both the conference and CSL finals). It’s also that the Suns coaches can’t tinker with lineups or strategies too much to determine what works best for the team (and against which type of teams). On many nights, the coaches have been forced to simply play anyone healthy enough. And the front office has no idea what to address before the trade deadline (except for some more depth). Does the projected lineup get the job done? Do players need to be exchanged? All these questions remain unanswered until a sample size of the lineup can be accumulated.

So why are the Suns so plagued by injuries this season? None of the players are especially injury prone (all players except rarely used reserve center Amir Williams are at least a 60 durability). Only one player averages over 32 mpg (Wright at 33.5). The coaches haven’t run a pace over 4 at any point this season. The team’s DI and FCP varies from game to game, but neither have been above 7 at any point this season.

A couple GMs have suggested that it might be the head coach. They’ve mentioned that some GMs routinely hit by the injury bug have changed head coaches and that seems to have worked. Honestly though, that seems like pure coincidence. If it came to light that injuries did have something to do with head coaches, then this game has some awful programming, especially considering that there is no injury-type attribute that a GM can see attached to any coach. Many teams regularly use high pace and some teams play their starters very high minutes. For the record, I think that it’s just a string of bad luck, but who knows for sure?

[emplep7]

Test out the HC theory. This game has already proved to have some programming flaws and I still think that is one of them.

[blackice]

Biyombo has been great for you guys, I don't see any glaring holes now. Just have to stay healthy and lean on Bledsoe/Wiggins to keep playing up to their standard.

[lakeshowak7]

Some players from the past two previous seasons of mine couldn't stay off the injury report.

For example, Lillard.

Since he left he's been injury free. Now DeAndre Jordan is always hurt for me.

The main constant during this time: Stan Van Gundy.

I never play a high pace.

[Sun Scorched]

Here's how I think this engine works:

TEAM - either at the beginning of the season or at various points throughout the season, the sim engine assigns certain random factors to team success. Think of it like a multiplier effect. The engine will say, for this month/season, ATL will play better than their talent, so the engine hit's them with an awesome 1.2x multiplier to team stats/ratings/etc., and ATL plays well-above their rating for a month to start the season. Contrasting that, the engine says SAC will play below their ratings for this period of time, and they are hit with a 0.80x multiplier to team stats/ratings/etc. So kinda random.

You know, PHX will be less good this season than the previous season, even thought nothing has changed, and get's hit with this 0.80x multiplier. Random. Or the same thing is true of injuries - this month/season PHX/NOP/DET will have a higher probability of injuries (get's hit with a 1.20x factor) or this season HOU can play Harden 52 MPG because the engine has seen fit to hit them with a 0.80x factor for team injuries.

PLAYER - Same exact concept, but on the player level. Players that play above their ratings (Alex Len) or below their ratings (Walter Tavares?) are hit with 1.20x and 0.80x factors respectively. Same for injuries.

And these TEAM/PLAYER "factors" can compound. NOP can have a 0.80x factor for team injuries and Anthony Davis gets hit with a 0.80x factor and has simply no chance of staying healthy that month/season, despite being pretty rugged.

LAL gets a 1.20x factor for this month and plays well above their talent and DeMar DeRozan gets a 1.20x boost to his personal stats and plays like an All-Star because the 1.20x TEAM factor and 1.20x PLAYER factor compound to create a 1.44x factor under which DeRozan experiences an awesome month/year.

This kind of format makes the most sense to me, especially considering how injuries have been hitting certain teams harder than other and why certain teams like SAC and PHX have had such a weird lack of continuity from season to season, despite retaining literally the same rosters that have led to that success.

[mgtr81]

I know how you feel because my teams usually have the same problem. A player's durability affects the frequency at which small injuries happen, but the season-ending injuries are random. From my experience, also tough defensive setups increase the chanche of small injuries, specially for players with above average defensive ratings.

[Rizzo]

Jace - if what you just laid out is anything remotely close to what's going on under the hood, that's awful.

[GreenBear]

Most of you guys have more experience with the engine than I do and would have a better idea. If it's somehow tied to a coach, then that's just atrocious programming. If you're going to put that in the game, then at least add something to the coaches ratings like "injury prevention" or something. Don't just put it in the game and make it a shit show.

Manu, players with above average defensive ratings are affected differently by injuries? Haha this keeps getting better and better.

[Mattybriand]

Here's how I think this engine works:

TEAM - either at the beginning of the season or at various points throughout the season, the sim engine assigns certain random factors to team success. Think of it like a multiplier effect. The engine will say, for this month/season, ATL will play better than their talent, so the engine hit's them with an awesome 1.2x multiplier to team stats/ratings/etc., and ATL plays well-above their rating for a month to start the season. Contrasting that, the engine says SAC will play below their ratings for this period of time, and they are hit with a 0.80x multiplier to team stats/ratings/etc. So kinda random.

You know, PHX will be less good this season than the previous season, even thought nothing has changed, and get's hit with this 0.80x multiplier. Random. Or the same thing is true of injuries - this month/season PHX/NOP/DET will have a higher probability of injuries (get's hit with a 1.20x factor) or this season HOU can play Harden 52 MPG because the engine has seen fit to hit them with a 0.80x factor for team injuries.

PLAYER - Same exact concept, but on the player level. Players that play above their ratings (Alex Len) or below their ratings (Walter Tavares?) are hit with 1.20x and 0.80x factors respectively. Same for injuries.

And these TEAM/PLAYER "factors" can compound. NOP can have a 0.80x factor for team injuries and Anthony Davis gets hit with a 0.80x factor and has simply no chance of staying healthy that month/season, despite being pretty rugged.

LAL gets a 1.20x factor for this month and plays well above their talent and DeMar DeRozan gets a 1.20x boost to his personal stats and plays like an All-Star because the 1.20x TEAM factor and 1.20x PLAYER factor compound to create a 1.44x factor under which DeRozan experiences an awesome month/year.

This kind of format makes the most sense to me, especially considering how injuries have been hitting certain teams harder than other and why certain teams like SAC and PHX have had such a weird lack of continuity from season to season, despite retaining literally the same rosters that have led to that success.

Awesome info!

[StOfTheStep]

Terrible article.

Phoenix sucks.

[GreenBear]

Terrible article.

Phoenix sucks.

I'm sorry, to comment on my articles, you need to have at least a 0.300 winning percentage.

[Sun Scorched]

Terrible article.

Phoenix sucks.

I'm sorry, to comment on my articles, you need to have at least a 0.300 winning percentage.

Haha. Nice.

[bt]

Here's how I think this engine works:

TEAM - either at the beginning of the season or at various points throughout the season, the sim engine assigns certain random factors to team success. Think of it like a multiplier effect. The engine will say, for this month/season, ATL will play better than their talent, so the engine hit's them with an awesome 1.2x multiplier to team stats/ratings/etc., and ATL plays well-above their rating for a month to start the season. Contrasting that, the engine says SAC will play below their ratings for this period of time, and they are hit with a 0.80x multiplier to team stats/ratings/etc. So kinda random.

You know, PHX will be less good this season than the previous season, even thought nothing has changed, and get's hit with this 0.80x multiplier. Random. Or the same thing is true of injuries - this month/season PHX/NOP/DET will have a higher probability of injuries (get's hit with a 1.20x factor) or this season HOU can play Harden 52 MPG because the engine has seen fit to hit them with a 0.80x factor for team injuries.

PLAYER - Same exact concept, but on the player level. Players that play above their ratings (Alex Len) or below their ratings (Walter Tavares?) are hit with 1.20x and 0.80x factors respectively. Same for injuries.

And these TEAM/PLAYER "factors" can compound. NOP can have a 0.80x factor for team injuries and Anthony Davis gets hit with a 0.80x factor and has simply no chance of staying healthy that month/season, despite being pretty rugged.

LAL gets a 1.20x factor for this month and plays well above their talent and DeMar DeRozan gets a 1.20x boost to his personal stats and plays like an All-Star because the 1.20x TEAM factor and 1.20x PLAYER factor compound to create a 1.44x factor under which DeRozan experiences an awesome month/year.

This kind of format makes the most sense to me, especially considering how injuries have been hitting certain teams harder than other and why certain teams like SAC and PHX have had such a weird lack of continuity from season to season, despite retaining literally the same rosters that have led to that success.

Definitely agree about the random thing. It has been in this series for years (booms and busts/work ethic tied to nothing other than random selection).

[StOfTheStep]

Terrible article.

Phoenix sucks.

I'm sorry, to comment on my articles, you need to have at least a 0.300 winning percentage.

...and Phoenix is prejudice to boot.

[Marcos_Beck]

Try firing HC.
Coincidence or not, luck or not, if it works, good for you. If it does not, you are at the exact same point you were, as HC means nothing.
I don't know what it is, I'm no engine expert. I just believe you gotta try a new factor whatever it is.

Also what's up with Wright's and Bledsoe's efficiency? They used to be the only guards (along with Harden, Rose and Dragic) capable of consistently shooting over 50% FG... What's going on?

[GreenBear]

Try firing HC.
Coincidence or not, luck or not, if it works, good for you. If it does not, you are at the exact same point you were, as HC means nothing.
I don't know what it is, I'm no engine expert. I just believe you gotta try a new factor whatever it is.

Also what's up with Wright's and Bledsoe's efficiency? They used to be the only guards (along with Harden, Rose and Dragic) capable of consistently shooting over 50% FG... What's going on?

Bledsoe's is a few things. I've been playing him at PG a lot this year due to injuries to that position. I've been having him shoot more threes this year. And I think he's just having an off year offensively. It happens.

For both, I think injuries have affected their efficiency a bit. Austin is the best front court facilitator in the game, and he's been out over half the season. And an accumulation of all the injuries is making them shoot more instead of looking for the open guy.

[Sun Scorched]

Try firing HC.
Coincidence or not, luck or not, if it works, good for you. If it does not, you are at the exact same point you were, as HC means nothing.
I don't know what it is, I'm no engine expert. I just believe you gotta try a new factor whatever it is.

Also what's up with Wright's and Bledsoe's efficiency? They used to be the only guards (along with Harden, Rose and Dragic) capable of consistently shooting over 50% FG... What's going on?

It's so hard for me to imagine that there are these ratings assigned to coaches, pace-oriented items, media stuff - and that none of it matters. Total wins, win percentage, playoff wins, championship experience.

It at least feels like teams with good coaches to better in the playoffs, no?

[mgtr81]

Manu, players with above average defensive ratings are affected differently by injuries? Haha this keeps getting better and better.

I have always had that impression. We currently have James, Harris and Bachinsky injured. In other leagues my best defenders always had minor injuries throughout the season.