State of the Cap Space Race: Out West

[Dennis]

@Marcos: he has a career year, he's shooting above 3% over his career average (also 5% higher FT% than his career average). He should bounce back to his 41% shooting again soon. But his DRFL is nice and nearly makes up for it, no doubt. But despite Dragic all my guys have bad shooting seasons so far. Still no idea why Brook can't hit any shots at the moment ..

@doug: I'm pretty sure you understood that I won't offer them all together, but SA/Mia could chose between them. Though a package Paul - Lopez would be possible depending on what I get in return (SF + x).

[Sun Scorched]

I mean the other aspect that no S&T team is talking about now is that your player has to want to go to SAS/MIA... much harder sell without LBJ/KD on board.

If SAS can't get it done with KD, why would Love think he can carry Lin and Matthews to the post season? Same goes for Lopez. Teams like SAC, PHX, NOP, WAS, etc would be much more appealing and at least two of those teams, potentially four, will have max cap space and a much better team than SAS or MIA. And I get the "5th year" stuff, I do, but you're not going to be able to hold a UFA hostage with it.

I just think there are more moving parts than realized.

[Myles]

Except it doesn't have to be a double s&t...

[Sun Scorched]

That's a good point. I'm not too familiar with how they're done in sim leagues with player agents. I could see an agent giving the names of a few teams to the mother team to choose from. But even that could get tricky. For one, the selected teams that are bidding on the player can't give up any of their own core players because those players are probably the reason why the player wanted to go there in the first place. And two, the mother team still gets too much power. Do you think San Antonio would do a S&T with a division rival like New Orleans? Not a chance. If there was an Eastern Conference team on that list, that's where he would go. And visa versa for LeBron.

Needless to say, things could get interesting this offseason.

Yeah - In my opinion, that's too much power for the "mother team", getting to pick where a player is sent when he is UFA. It should be like: "Player X has decided to sign a maximum contract with Phoenix, contingent upon an S&T. Here is the package offered."

And really, anything like a couple of 1st round picks and/or a legit player should be enough.

This isn't about teams trading for LeBron or Durant on a 5 year deal at repressed value, because both would be worth significantly more than is being discussed by any interested team. This is about either choosing where to play, and then getting a 5th year because their preference sent some value back.

[Sun Scorched]

Except it doesn't have to be a double s&t...

Obviously......... But the only two offers mentioned so far were........ Hence the comment.

You gonna throw Nik and some picks into the fray?

[Dennis]

Except it doesn't have to be a double s&t...

Obviously......... But the only two offers mentioned so far were........ Hence the comment.

You gonna throw Nik and some picks into the fray?

I won't hesitate to offer Dragic/Paul for KD/LBJ. Like said, Brook would only be the second piece I send if it's a bigger trade. What you said might be spot on for Chicago though.

[Dennis]

That's a good point. I'm not too familiar with how they're done in sim leagues with player agents. I could see an agent giving the names of a few teams to the mother team to choose from. But even that could get tricky. For one, the selected teams that are bidding on the player can't give up any of their own core players because those players are probably the reason why the player wanted to go there in the first place. And two, the mother team still gets too much power. Do you think San Antonio would do a S&T with a division rival like New Orleans? Not a chance. If there was an Eastern Conference team on that list, that's where he would go. And visa versa for LeBron.

Needless to say, things could get interesting this offseason.

Yeah - In my opinion, that's too much power for the "mother team", getting to pick where a player is sent when he is UFA. It should be like: "Player X has decided to sign a maximum contract with Phoenix, contingent upon an S&T. Here is the package offered."

And really, anything like a couple of 1st round picks and/or a legit player should be enough.

This isn't about teams trading for LeBron or Durant on a 5 year deal at repressed value, because both would be worth significantly more than is being discussed by any interested team. This is about either choosing where to play, and then getting a 5th year because their preference sent some value back.

Like bt said before, there is a huge difference between reallife and SIM leagues. I don't see a problem if the Agent says "LeBron/KD prefer to play for a contender". I don't see such a huge difference between Phoenix, Nola, Chicago etc. to say that they exclusively want to play for PHX or Nola because they have the cap space. But that might only be me because I will definitely offer their mother team a "star" (some might not consider Dragic/Paul being a star) in return. S&T is very likely though as the players will get their 5th year. So I believe it could end up in a bid war. And overall the mother team doesnt have too much power. They get told only 4-6 teams are possible trade partners. So it depends on what the teams in the drawpot are willing to give up. Being able to trade with 4-6 instead of 29 teams is already a huge constraint.

Edit: but yeah. Too early for the discussion. So much can happen until FA. Maybe Miami wins it all or SA starts a run. Maybe someone becomes a PA who really wants LeBron to sign with a certain team. You never know.

[Sun Scorched]

I agree - several teams have a great shot. A lot does have to do with the playoffs.

[bt]

There's no guarantee either player leaves but if they decided to, it mainly comes down to one team nominated versus two or more by the agent as one team means S&T compensation could be light but nominating many then sees S&T compensation upped by whoever wants to pay the most.

Your NOP might seem like a great fit but if you were nominated with another team, say the Celtics as they were talking above, be interesting to see how much you want him if Cotton/White and or other players/picks need to be moved or beat out their offer.

I think one nominated team or two plus is key if a player decides to leave. Then if it was two plus, the agent would have power to further that decision based on who is leaving those teams. Wouldn't want to head to Boston any more if they sent Lopez, Dragic and other good pieces (just an example).

[GreenBear]

I think one nominated team or two plus is key if a player decides to leave. Then if it was two plus, the agent would have power to further that decision based on who is leaving those teams. Wouldn't want to head to Boston any more if they sent Lopez, Dragic and other good pieces (just an example).

100% agree with this. That's exactly why I was confused some teams were throwing out stars they'd be willing to part with to get the mother team to agree to a S&T with them. If LeBron puts a team on his shortlist because they did well last season and they have star players X, Y and Z on their team, then he may not want to go to that team anymore if that team has to give up a star player or two just to get him. Wouldn't he rather go to another top contending team that doesn't have to give up any star? I think that's the huge advantage of already having cap room versus having to ship out some high-priced players to make the salaries work. BUT, if like bt said, the agents give the mother teams a few teams to choose from (very possible), then it's going to come down to who can offer the most.

[Marcos_Beck]

It's a matter of choosing, I mean.

LeBron / Durant can choose Chicago / Boston for example (two teams without positive CAP space) and if they do so, only a S&T offer would do it. But then then SA/MIA does not like Chicago's offer for example but likes Boston's better than NOLA / Phoenix offers (all examples please). And SA/MIA tells their star they are not trading him to Chicago. Of course he has the option of leaving for NOLA / Phoenix on 4 year max deals, but an option to move to Boston for 5 year max appears and he (hypothetically) prefers getting that 5th year while going to Boston instead of going to NOLA on a 4 year deal. Yes NOLA has a 5 year max contract as part of a S&T but SA/MIA does not see it as appealing and would rather risk losing their star for free while trying to convince them to take Boston's 5 year max offer S&T which is better for the mother teams.

So it becomes a game of NOLA trying to convince the superstar to play for them at 4 years and SA/MIA risking losing their superstar for nothing but backing up that he'll take the 5 year S&T of their choice (not player's first choice though).

So both teams would have something to say if their stars opt to leave considering the fact that they can try to force a S&T to a team with no positive CAP to sign them in order to get the 5th year. It will be a very complex FA, I'm 100% sure. I feel bad for the PAs already.

[WillyJakkz]

Well Superstar FA's don't force their way to teams without capspace to outright sign them.

Only way LeBron or KD gets to CHI or BOS is 3-4 team deal or to have already been traded to those teams pre-deadline which obviously has passed cause they would in turn be the team assuming the risk of said FA leaving which is why teams without cap are forced to trade more talent to acquire said FA so CHI BOS literally shouldn't even be a factor at all.

[Dennis]

I think one nominated team or two plus is key if a player decides to leave. Then if it was two plus, the agent would have power to further that decision based on who is leaving those teams. Wouldn't want to head to Boston any more if they sent Lopez, Dragic and other good pieces (just an example).

100% agree with this. That's exactly why I was confused some teams were throwing out stars they'd be willing to part with to get the mother team to agree to a S&T with them. If LeBron puts a team on his shortlist because they did well last season and they have star players X, Y and Z on their team, then he may not want to go to that team anymore if that team has to give up a star player or two just to get him. Wouldn't he rather go to another top contending team that doesn't have to give up any star? I think that's the huge advantage of already having cap room versus having to ship out some high-priced players to make the salaries work. BUT, if like bt said, the agents give the mother teams a few teams to choose from (very possible), then it's going to come down to who can offer the most.

I never said I will give them up all.I mean we are 44-22 not having most of our players for big parts of our season.. I said I will offer Dragic for KD - 1-1 swap. That would leave us with Paul, McCOllum, KD, Josh, Lopez (if resigned). Where did I give up that much that I won't be a contender anymore? KD is > Dragic by far, so I only would have upgraded.I named a list of players I would consider to trade, not that I would send them all. (Just to make it clear, I know it was just an example by bt).

But yeah it a team would give up too much they would be out of the race. But I don't see any problems if I (or any other team) offers SA a 1-1 swap it it's an upgrade. Looking at it from think angle it is even a worse situation for Nola. I believe Chicago or Boston (just to name those two, we could easily name Detroit here too) are able to part with one of their "stars" to get KD. Would be curious to see who Nola gives up. Maybe Jordan to resign Hibbert? Else I don't believe they will give up Cotton or someone else.

[Marcos_Beck]

Well Superstar FA's don't force their way to teams without capspace to outright sign them.

Only way LeBron or KD gets to CHI or BOS is 3-4 team deal or to have already been traded to those teams pre-deadline which obviously has passed cause they would in turn be the team assuming the risk of said FA leaving which is why teams without cap are forced to trade more talent to acquire said FA so CHI BOS literally shouldn't even be a factor at all.

Not if the team has the trade pieces to do a S&T deal that is VERY good for the mother team.

Haha
I'm loving that KD and LBJ aren't even FAs yet and we're already discussing where they'll go. It's not guaranteed that they'll leave haha
Time to shut down the media. And go do some work.

[bt]

I see what Willy is saying though. Only contenders for LeBron in 2010 were teams with cap space. It was never going to happen with any others nor was it ever discussed/considered.

Teams with cap have the unique advantage of the player having leverage and saying that I'm leaving then for nothing if you can't agree. I keep saying if because there's no reason speculating they're leaving but if they did, I see it as teams without cap space having to pay more than fair value to get them and teams with cap not given the player can get there without the help of a sign and trade. The Boston's and Chicago's wouldn't and shouldn't be able to get it done with a Dragic or Love alone and would pay a heavy price. NOP or PHX could send a pick or picks or a young player maybe and get it done. The threat of walking without compensation makes it easier for those teams.

[Dennis]

You have also to keep in mind the other side. Jeff and the new Miami GM have their "rights" too. I mean if Nola wins it all it is very unlikely KD would say I chose between three if he could sign with the champ. But if Chicago, Boston, Nola etc get eliminated in the second round (just examples) SA/Miami should have the right to negotiate s&Ts with the capless teams too. Not allowing them would be very unfair to SA and miamis managers. What would even be the Argument for not letting them?
I mean, if you guys think I shouldn't be involved there/offer for them because I'm and admin and something mysterious could go on or whatever.. i can withdraw my offer thats already public. But they definitely should be allowed to negotiate sign and trades. Thats only fair.

[bt]

and that's the difference really. LeBron says Miami in 2010 and Cleveland just suck it up. Toronto too for Bosh. Bad luck Blazers with San Antonio and any other free agent that left for nothing.

Not sure an agent can do that here without causing issues (a person putting words in someones mouth). Like you said, a bit unfair but it will play out either way.

[dapralbe]

I see what Willy is saying though. Only contenders for LeBron in 2010 were teams with cap space. It was never going to happen with any others nor was it ever discussed/considered.

Teams with cap have the unique advantage of the player having leverage and saying that I'm leaving then for nothing if you can't agree. I keep saying if because there's no reason speculating they're leaving but if they did, I see it as teams without cap space having to pay more than fair value to get them and teams with cap not given the player can get there without the help of a sign and trade. The Boston's and Chicago's wouldn't and shouldn't be able to get it done with a Dragic or Love alone and would pay a heavy price. NOP or PHX could send a pick or picks or a young player maybe and get it done. The threat of walking without compensation makes it easier for those teams.

+1

Lebron and kevin if no continue in mother teams. They should be play in phoenix or new orleans cap rounds and player decision if don't get a compensation.

[dapralbe]

Boston and chicago if paid the correct price don't will have a level For a cotender the next year.
Love paul? overvalue players

[Dennis]

And that's the point Daniel. They wouldn't have to pay "real value" and could trade "overvalue players". It's better than getting nothing in return. Btw, why is Paul overvalued? 99% stop, 4 TOFC, 0.78 PA/SF, 47%,1.8 to and 6.4 with only ~70 touches is very good. Just because he doesn't score a lot it doesn't mean he's bad.
Btw, all the FA decisions from th NBA discussed here are related to personal decisions by the players. Lebron wanted to play with his friend, Bosh joined them because the big three would be a crazy good team, LMA joined SA because of Pop etc. That's something not part of a simleague. In the end other teams should be happy if KD doesn't end up in Nola. Titles for the next ten years would be gone ..