State of the Cap Space Race: Out West

[Sun Scorched]

State of the Cap Space Race: Out West

This article, in order of least to most cap space available, comes with a few caveats. I have included cap holds for players whose rights are likely to be retained by their respective teams. These numbers do not include allowances for any draft picks, though owned draft picks are noted below available cap space.


Houston Rockets
Committed Salary: $69,691,690
Cap Holds: $27,707,609 (Ryan Anderson, Thaddeus Young)
Available Cap Space: -$27,069,161
Draft Picks: 2016 MIN

Notes: The Rockets will essentially be at the salary cap without the holds of Anderson and/or Young, so it’s doubtful they renounce either. Roughly $3.2m in waived salary puts them into the first luxury tax penalty, making their off-season improvement more challenging.


Los Angeles Clippers
Committed Salary: $90,646,931
Cap Holds: $0
Available Cap Space: -$20,316,793
Draft Picks: 2016 BOS

Notes: The Clippers have the dubious honor of being the first team to essentially hit the hard cap. Only Luke Ridnour and Quincy Miller expire this offseason leaving the Clippers with $90.6m in committed salary next season. With no MLE, this team may look substantially the same by the start of next season – or not.


San Antonio Spurs
Committed Salary: $44,584,224
Cap Holds: $35,460,107 (Kevin Durant, Markieff Morris)
Available Cap Space: -$9,714,193
Draft Picks: 2016 SAS

Notes: San Antonio will be in a dogfight for Durant’s services this offseason. Since Durant’s cap hold effectively puts San Antonio over the salary cap anyway, expect them to hold onto Markieff’s bird rights as well. The Spurs will still get to flex their MLE muscle, but will it be enough to keep Durant on a team that would otherwise be a lottery lock?


Golden State Warriors
Committed Salary: $65,701,962
Cap Holds: $10,757,493 (Wilson Chandler)
Available Cap Space: -$6,129,317

Notes: I assumed that Golden State would hold onto Chandler’s rights, as they would only have roughly $4.5m in cap space otherwise, which may not be enough to get a player similar to Chandler in the first place. They will, however, still have their MLE to utilize. Is this next season the year that the Warriors finally put it together? What will “it” look like?


Memphis Grizzlies
Committed Salary: $53,566,341
Cap Holds: $14,982,639 (Mike Conley)
Available Cap Space: $1,781,158
Draft Picks: 2016 MEM

Notes: Memphis was able to simplify their offseason by locking Courtney Lee into a cap-friendly contract, but retaining Mike Conley will be another story entirely. Memphis will still have their MLE to play with, but this may be when you’d rather have the additional $8m in cap space that Pondexter, Belinelli and Turiaf eat up to go along with your roughly $2m in cap space (after Conley’s hold) to try and grab one more difference maker – perhaps at power forward?


Dallas Mavericks
Committed Salary: $44,871,708
Cap Holds: $18,000,000 (JaVale McGee)
Available Cap Space: $7,458,430
Draft Picks: 2016 PHI, 2016 DAL

Notes: McGee’s cap hold is obviously more than he’ll get paid and, once the Mavericks have either locked-up or renounced McGee, they will have some room to run this offseason. Reggie Jackson is looking like one of the steals of last offseason, let’s see if the venerable Myles can pull of another free agency coup.


Oklahoma City Thunder
Committed Salary: $46,209,753
Cap Holds: $13,911,935 (Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, John Henson)
Available Cap Space: $10,208,451
Draft Picks: 2016 OKC

Notes: Oklahoma City pulled the trigger on a trade that sent Kevin Durant south in exchange for several young and less talented players. The goal seemed to be depth (and the possibility of avoiding the issue San Antonio now faces), but the Thunder have yet to put it all together. Brandon Knight and Nikola Vucevic seem to be the key players for the Thunder with Vasquez and Millsap providing cheap, sturdy veteran leadership. Nick Johnson, the former Rookie of the Year, may need more help in Oklahoma before they begin to churn out wins – MKG and Henson should be valuable to that.


Utah Jazz
Committed Salary: $53,217,015
Cap Holds: $0
Available Cap Space: $17,113,123
Draft Picks: None

Notes: Utah is in the unique position of not really needing any one position all that badly. Exum, Harris, Hayward, Favors and Thompson all round out a young and dynamic starting five – one that seems only to need time to grow into themselves. Of those five, however, Utah may not complain about an upgrade at center – something they may be able to acquire this offseason.


Denver Nuggets
Committed Salary: $44,199,586
Cap Holds: $5,330,876 (Terrence Ross)
Available Cap Space: $20,799,677

Notes: Denver remains one of the more intriguing situations – only a year removed from a championship, they sit near the bottom of the lowly Northwest Division. Still, Blake Griffin (and the appeal of playing alongside the 26 year old stud forward) makes Denver a unique landing spot for free agents. They’ll need to hope Ross holds on to sign, giving them over $20m in cap space, or waive his rights and open up close to $26m.


Phoenix Suns
Committed Salary: $46,426,874
Cap Holds: $0
Available Cap Space: $23,903,264
Draft Picks: 2016 PHX

Notes: Phoenix has absolutely flown under the radar this season. Sitting atop the Pacific division with a roster full of young talent isn’t a bad place to be, come free agency. The Suns also happen to be a relatively well-rounded squad, leaving open the flexibility to an offseason approach that will keep everyone guessing.


Minnesota Timberwolves
Committed Salary: $46,355,691
Cap Holds: $0
Available Cap Space: $23,974,447
Draft Picks: 2016 IND

Notes: Time to get Westbrook some help. The Wolves have no one worth wasting cap holds on and roughly $24m in cap space designed to get more talent next to Westbrook, Oladipo and Sanders. The team is currently flirting with a winning record, something that will be important to decision makers this coming offseason.


Los Angeles Lakers
Committed Salary: $42,824,915
Cap Holds: $0
Available Cap Space: $27,505,223
Draft Picks: 2016 UTA, 2016 LAL, 2016 SAC

Notes: The Lakers paid Rondo the max last offseason. Then they didn’t. I’d expect a similar attempt this offseason with the goal of building around a core of DeRozan, Tavares, Johnson and Hill. The Lakers have proven that they can win some games, now they need to convince a free agent that they can win more games – the lack of a playoff berth next season will be disappointing.


New Orleans Pelicans
Committed Salary: $27,369,953
Cap Holds: $10,606,094 (Anthony Davis)
Available Cap Space: $32,354,092
Draft Picks: None

Notes: The Pelicans will undoubtedly look to pair Anthony Davis with another superstar. It’s a fair guess that the Pelicans won’t let Roy Hibbert’s $23m cap hold inhibit their free agency jaunt, though word has it that New Orleans is interested in bringing back the talented (though inconsistent) big man as well.


Sacramento Kings
Committed Salary: $33,253,689
Cap Holds: $0
Available Cap Space: $37,076,449
Draft Picks: 2016 NYK, 2016 TOR, 2016 DEN

Notes: The Kings, like the Suns, are in a similarly awesome position – but with even more cap space. Another roster without many holes: Payton, McLemore, Solomon, Nurkic, Parsons, Wood, and Porter are all (young) players that could start for most teams. The cap space-induced good times may be up after this summer, with the pending RFA status of both Porter and McLemore – making the use of the aforementioned cap space this offseason imperative.


Portland Trailblazers
Committed Salary: $17,207,127
Cap Holds: $15,171,012 (Damian Lillard, Harrison Barnes, Giannis [enter last name here])
Available Cap Space: $37,951,999
Draft Picks: 2016 NOP, 2016 POR, 2016 GSW

Notes: Sporting the most cap space in the Western Conference may not mean much, but I don’t think that Blazers management will let that flexibility go to waste either. Their three young RFAs will all make a minimal impact cap hold wise, and Portland may look to take advantage of the ability to absorb contracts in the Summer of Zaza Pachulia…. I mean, Durant/Lebron…..

[KW]

The Kings, Pelicans, Suns, and Blazers are all in fantastic situations. All either have an established star or have an established roster that is competitive, and will have max cap space to add to it. Denver is in a great situation too... they are way better than their record shows.

[Dennis]

I'm sure I won't volunteer for a PA spot this offseason. Playoffs might be an early indication if teams like NO and PHX can compete with the best and pray away stars. Especially in Nola's case it would be crazy. They have 4 stars in their lineup and only need a SF. I might have to add a very strong draft next season to make up for it. The young teams need to be able to find talent like white and cotton outside of the lottery like NO did. Else they will never catch them again.

[Dennis]

The Kings, Pelicans, Suns, and Blazers are all in fantastic situations. All either have an established star or have an established roster that is competitive, and will have max cap space to add to it. Denver is in a great situation too... they are way better than their record shows.

- Portland IMO. They will spend a lot money this offseason. Keep in mind Lillards, Barnes and Antes extension. So there won't be left much for next offseason. I don't believe lebron or any other star would join the Blazers this year if they could play for a decent franchise.

[KW]

The Kings, Pelicans, Suns, and Blazers are all in fantastic situations. All either have an established star or have an established roster that is competitive, and will have max cap space to add to it. Denver is in a great situation too... they are way better than their record shows.

- Portland IMO. They will spend a lot money this offseason. Keep in mind Lillards, Barnes and Antes extension. So there won't be left much for next offseason. I don't believe lebron or any other star would join the Blazers this year if they could play for a decent franchise.

Even with all those guys' cap holds, they'll have max cap space and then a good bit. But those signings have to happen before Lillard and Barnes re-sign. I'm pretty sure Giannis is supposed to have a team option for next season unless it was declined. He was drafted a year after Lillard and Barnes.

[Dennis]

The Kings, Pelicans, Suns, and Blazers are all in fantastic situations. All either have an established star or have an established roster that is competitive, and will have max cap space to add to it. Denver is in a great situation too... they are way better than their record shows.

- Portland IMO. They will spend a lot money this offseason. Keep in mind Lillards, Barnes and Antes extension. So there won't be left much for next offseason. I don't believe lebron or any other star would join the Blazers this year if they could play for a decent franchise.

Even with all those guys' cap holds, they'll have max cap space and then a good bit. But those signings have to happen before Lillard and Barnes re-sign. I'm pretty sure Giannis has a team option for next season unless it was declined. He was drafted a year after Lillard and Barnes.

But who would sign with Portland?

[KW]

- Portland IMO. They will spend a lot money this offseason. Keep in mind Lillards, Barnes and Antes extension. So there won't be left much for next offseason. I don't believe lebron or any other star would join the Blazers this year if they could play for a decent franchise.

Even with all those guys' cap holds, they'll have max cap space and then a good bit. But those signings have to happen before Lillard and Barnes re-sign. I'm pretty sure Giannis has a team option for next season unless it was declined. He was drafted a year after Lillard and Barnes.

But who would sign with Portland?

$$$ talks, and Lillard and Barnes are both fringe All-Star guys. I don't think Portland's an unappealing target. They may have to overpay for a slightly lesser talent, but I don't doubt Portland's going to field a solid team next year.

[Sun Scorched]

I'm sure I won't volunteer for a PA spot this offseason. Playoffs might be an early indication if teams like NO and PHX can compete with the best and pray away stars. Especially in Nola's case it would be crazy. They have 4 stars in their lineup and only need a SF. I might have to add a very strong draft next season to make up for it. The young teams need to be able to find talent like white and cotton outside of the lottery like NO did. Else they will never catch them again.

I mean, let's be real here. This has been an obvious goal of mine - I'm a cap space junkie. I made this decision last offseason when I had Wade expiring (but injured) and needed to sign someone like Lou Williams to a one-year deal, so that I could offer another max this offseason. That's harder than it sounds, given I gave Jordan a max this past offseason.

But if I had to rank why we are playing so well, it would go like this:

1-5. Anthony Davis
.
.
.
.
6. DeAndre Jordan
7. Bryce Cotton
8. Jordan McRae
9. Roy Hibbert
10. Glenn Robinson
11. Okaro White

Frankly, the biggest benefit to players like Cotton and White is that they don't take shots away from more efficient players like Davis and Jordan. White is shooting less than 1.00 PPSA - which if you know me, isn't cool. In fact, he may be gone this next offseason.

[Dennis]

- Portland IMO. They will spend a lot money this offseason. Keep in mind Lillards, Barnes and Antes extension. So there won't be left much for next offseason. I don't believe lebron or any other star would join the Blazers this year if they could play for a decent franchise.

Even with all those guys' cap holds, they'll have max cap space and then a good bit. But those signings have to happen before Lillard and Barnes re-sign. I'm pretty sure Giannis has a team option for next season unless it was declined. He was drafted a year after Lillard and Barnes.

But who would sign with Portland?

$$$ talks, and Lillard and Barnes are both fringe All-Star guys. I don't think Portland's an unappealing target. They may have to overpay for a slightly lesser talent, but I don't doubt Portland's going to field a solid team next year.

Well, I believe only FA that won't sign anywhere else will consider to sign with Portland. And that's only fair. PA can't reward tanking. Not everytime money talks.

[Dennis]

Yeah davis is the clear superstar on the team, but I really need to up the draftclass' talent. White and Cotton would have been top5 / maybe top3 talent last year in cottons case. Given they haven't even been lottery selections I need to add more talent.

[Dennis]

Ps: not talking as a PA, just as a normal GM.

[GreenBear]

Awesome article, SS. A couple things to touch upon:

1. I'm not even sure what I'm doing in the offseason yet haha. I'd certainly love to add a LeBron/Durant, but there are several other teams with as good or better teams than us that also have cap space. And that's not even talking about the mother teams in Miami and SA who can offer more years and money, or do a sign-and-trade. I'll look to make a big splash though. There are several other great FAs out there that I can target.

2. There are certainly good players to be found in the draft outside of the lottery besides White and Cotton. Nick Johnson (who should have won ROY last year) and Delon Wright have been great finds outside of the lottery. In fact, they were both picked at #17... Whoever ends up with #17 this year could probably trade it for a king's ransom.

[lakeshowak7]

Players play where there are players on teams who can help them win. Sorry that I didn't settle for another 8th seed and one and done playoff year (look at Portland's history it isn't stellar), in one season I've made them a team with a much higher ceiling - rid all of the bad contracts, added young, good players and didn't lose talent, and gained multiple 1sts that the team didn't have before, along with cap space this season and next.

A PA can be vindictive over a tanking season, and that's fine - but what's the role of a PA? To put their player in the right situation to win coupled with the right amount of money.

Teams tank all the time to get themselves out of ruts - and players end up signing there to help them win. It's not like teams are tanking for the life of a free agent's contract.

[NanashiWake]

Awesome, had been waiting for this article and great read again. I quickly realized that I have a lot more competition in the West to contend this FA period, than I do in the East. In fact, I might dare say, not even go after Durant knowing that I can't easily beat Phoenix and New Orleans in terms of appeal. I do have a couple tricks up my sleeve though for my pitch and might reconsider (or could just be lying and getting in everyones' head). However, as mentioned before, also have plenty of other targets to go after but man, as Dennis stated, it's going to be a crazy tough decision for the player agents of stars this off-season.

[bt]

Been waiting for this also.

We have three 1st round picks which will chew into our space a little bit but to be blunt, I think there's a very good chance we don't spend much, if any this off season. We have RFA holds next off season and then the season after will be Payton, Solomon, Nurkic. We're confident that internal growth and smart trading will propel us and we won't need to rely on the cap space we've set aside for future deals.

and Tony Parker has been huge for us this season. We might even bring him back or another under the radar veteran that can help on large one year deals.

[NanashiWake]

Been waiting for this also.

We have three 1st round picks which will chew into our space a little bit but to be blunt, I think there's a very good chance we don't spend much, if any this off season. We have RFA holds next off season and then the season after will be Payton, Solomon, Nurkic. We're confident that internal growth and smart trading will propel us and we won't need to rely on the cap space we've set aside for future deals.

and Tony Parker has been huge for us this season. We might even bring him back or another under the radar veteran that can help on large one year deals.

That plan actually sounds more appealing for a longer duration in my opinion.

[bt]

Maybe the most appealing part is it will be a shit storm getting involved ha. Too many teams with too much cap.

[Jestor]

We'll do the same thing as we did last year. Go star hunting. If that doesn't work, look for system fits we can lock up long term on reasonable deals.

[Dennis]

Players play where there are players on teams who can help them win. Sorry that I didn't settle for another 8th seed and one and done playoff year (look at Portland's history it isn't stellar), in one season I've made them a team with a much higher ceiling - rid all of the bad contracts, added young, good players and didn't lose talent, and gained multiple 1sts that the team didn't have before, along with cap space this season and next.

A PA can be vindictive over a tanking season, and that's fine - but what's the role of a PA? To put their player in the right situation to win coupled with the right amount of money.

Teams tank all the time to get themselves out of ruts - and players end up signing there to help them win. It's not like teams are tanking for the life of a free agent's contract.

1. You don't have players on your team that can help the FA win it all. Record clearly indicates that.

2. Players sign with teams to help them win, yeah. But you don't want to win.

3. Yes, they want to put their players in the right situation. But losing on purpose isn't the right situation.

I as a GM can't see Portland sign any serious FA for at least two seasons. What the PA decide is soemthing different and may depend on the offers their players receive. But I would prefer signing with Indiana compared to Portland for example because both are losing franchises, but Indiana tries to win.

[OneNole]

This will be an entertaining off season. I am going to grab some popcorn and enjoy watching this unfold.