Head coach Terry Stotts has an ultimatum from the Lakers front office
In the wake of Julius Randle's season-ending injury that will carry over to next season, the Los Angeles Lakers have been a bit adrift - going 1-2 (as of this article's initial draft) and losing a home game to the Philadelphia 76ers due to failure to submit proper lineup paperwork in time. The Purple and Gold are still very much alive in the playoff hunt, given the standings at the bottom seeding of the postseason chase. But in the organization, rumblings grew that Larry Sanders was, if not being heavily shopped, at least very publicly made available. And then came the offer the front office enthusiastically said yes to. The Milwaukee Bucks called, dangling injured star big man Greg Monroe and youngster Kaleb Tarczewski for Giannis "The Greek Freak" Antetokounmpo and out for the season Lucas Nogueira. The Lakers didn't hesitate for a second - accepting immediately.
While Monroe is out two months with a broken hand, it's a move that trumpets several things quite loudly, and is reminiscent of last season, when the Lakers shipped out T.J. McConnell and a future first for Chandler Parsons. It's also a trade that sources say caused the front office to put Terry Stotts' job on the line: Make the playoffs this year, or get fired. Stotts, 59, has been credited by team officials for doing masterful work in guiding the roster to a 7-7 December that featured a brutal 9 away games, and an unlucky 1-4 record in single digit games at end of regulation (1-5 following the upset home loss to the 76ers). Successfully blending Ricky Rubio in the lineup, and completely changing the tactical scheme, the Purple and Gold looked poised to be a dangerous playoff team. And then Randle went down.
But more on that in a moment.
First, the players leaving:
Once more, Giannis "The Greek Freak" Antetokounmpo is on the move
Much has been written about how the player who was once a promising reclamation project in the making tumbled down, so we won't belabor at length here. But it's worth noting that thus far in his Bucks tenure, despite a controversial shift to SF, he's shown a revival in shooting form - particularly from downtown. A small sample size games that's completely irrelevant in the larger scheme of things, but it nonetheless demonstrates that under a team that takes unorthodox approaches in Milwaukee, he might find his best role yet (he's been instructed to take more 3 pointers, as the hammering away at his weak jumper is hitting two fold - one to posting up, the other to behind the arc).
Still, one had the increasing sense that the Lakers were growing ever disenchanted with the Freak - he was losing substantial minutes to Aaron White, who was posting better PA/SF numbers, getting to the line, and shooting a much higher FG %, all at the low cost of a rookie contract for this season and next. He'll be battling one of the newcomers for minutes once Greg Monroe comes back, and should be relegated to fourth big status once Julius Randle returns at the midway point of next season.
Lucas Nogueira - great hair, ghastly attitude
There's little question the Los Angeles Lakers loved Lucas Nogueira. At one point, they were considering him as an option at #14 if all their other targets were gone, and tried repeatedly to trade in to the late first and second until he went to get him. The young Brazilian with the CSL's most fantastic hair looked like an excellent defender in the making with a strong ability to draw contact inside. They were able to eventually get him from the Memphis Grizzlies for a 2nd round pick, and started working him in the rotation until he went down with a season-ending injury. Even in those limited minutes, he showed exceptional shotblocking ability and a ridiculous 0.52 PA/SF ratio.
But he also had one of the worst personalities in the league - as surly as he was gifted defensively, though the Purple and Gold were willing to have him on the roster, even though they prefer better locker room fits. Trading Bebe wasn't something they planned on doing, but when the offer came, they couldn't resist, and immediately pulled the trigger. "We wish Lucas the best of luck in Milwaukee," GM Jestor said. "We still believe he was the single biggest steal in the draft, and he'll be a fantastic player for the Bucks."
Kaleb Tarczewski will be interviewed by hot girls in Los Angeles, too
24 year old big man Kaleb Tarczewski becomes the Lakers' newest big man, both figuratively and literally, standing 7', 243 lbs. A part-time starter in Milwaukee and New York after being the first pick in the second round of the 2015 draft, he's bounced around the league - going from Milwaukee to New York to Chicago and then back to the Bucks in his first three seasons before finally being shipped to the Lakers. The front office of his new team was quietly intrigued by him in the scouting prior to the draft, but bad lottery luck meant they had no second round pick at all.
Most scouts scoff at his talent level, considering him to be nothing more than a body with size, but in 27 starts in his rookie season, he showed flashes of blocking talent and looked to be a much better rebounder than most scouts figured he would, and with defense that also surpassed expectations. Thus far as a Laker, with increased minutes, he's shooting 57.1% for 5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1 block a game, and his season average PA/SF ratio checks in at 0.86. The steal numbers are especially staggering, considering he's not expected to be a very good ballthief.
"We were actually really excited to get Kaleb," Lakers GM Jestor said. "We haven't been too happy with Anthony Bennett at the reserve PF spot the last few games, after AB15 showed promise there last season, so we're going to give the new guy extended burn and fight with Aaron (White) for PT once Greg (Monroe) comes back in a little over a month and a half. Who knows? He may end up a guy who signs a long-term above min-sal contract either this offseason or next, depending on what he does with his player option. He'll certainly get an opportunity here like he hasn't - max of 20 MPG in his career, and that his rookie year."
Greg Monroe was already wearing Lakers purple at the press conference announcing his move
It was the summer after the CSL's first season, and the Lakers, loaded with cap space, targeted the young Greg Monroe with a maximum offer sheet. He signed, but the Detroit Pistons matched the offer sheet, retaining his services. Then in the summer following the 2015 season, he was dealt to the Atlanta Hawks in a package for package swap, playing only half the season before returning to the Central in a one for one swap to the Milwaukee Bucks for Jonas Valanciunus. This past offseason, despite a lack of pressure from other teams, the Milwaukee Bucks rewarded the 29 year old a maximum contract - his second straight. Then, after Kyle Lowry shockingly defected to the Charlotte Hornets and Monroe broke his hand (still out a month and a half), Milwaukee shook up their roster, sending LeBron James to the Pistons for a bevy of players (most notably Brandon Knight and a first round pick), and Monroe to the Lakers for the trade discussed here.
A four time media All-Star, and a Third Team All-CSL media selection last season, the 29 year old Monroe is rated by some teams as a borderline Top 20 player in the league, blessed with exceptional rebounding talent, strong passing and handling for a big, and high quality scoring and foul drawing. He also is a player who is already set in terms of his shot preferences, allowing the Lakers to save their resources for players like Shabazz Napier and Nikola Mirotic. When he returns from injury in a couple of months, he projects to step in as the starting PF, and will have a shotblocking defender next to him in Larry Sanders - an exceptional offense/defense pairing in the paint. This season, he's averaged 18.7 points, 10 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 0.9 blocks, shooting 49% from the floor. Although he's been criticized for his defense, he has a 70.6% drive stop rate, a 0.95 PA/SF ratio, and 1.7 TOFC/game.
"We're absolutely thrilled to finally have Greg in purple and gold," Jestor said. "He really wanted to come here a few years ago, but RFA rules locked us out of him, and last summer there was no way he was turning down a maximum offer from Milwaukee. We're excited to see how he'll perform when he comes back, and especially ecstatic to see the roster next season when Julius (Randle) comes back from his own injury at mid-season."
However, a Los Angeles Times columnist raised a very interesting question in a recent article:
Where Do The Lakers Go From Here
On paper, the setup of Ricky Rubio, Delon Wright, an improved Nikola Mirotic, Greg Monroe, and Larry Sanders with Shabazz Napier and Julius Randle as bench stars alongside whoever the backup SF is (whether the criminally underrated Corey Brewer or their draft selection, should they go that route) looks explosive and balanced.
But there's no guarantee that scenario happens. Rubio is a UFA, and it's unclear how much money Wright and Randle will command on the RFA market - particularly Randle, given his injury. And will the Lakers risk penalties to retain everyone? It's a looming issue the front office needs to seriously pay attention to. But this is also where Shabazz Napier at a flat rate price of $6.5 million a year looks like a tremendous value for arguably the CSL's best 6th man, and gave them the breathing room to not be forced to make a move like the Detroit Pistons seem to do every summer - particularly given how space-sparse the league as a whole is, and the presence of tantalizing targets such as Andrew Wiggins.
Looking further at it, this summer will see the departures of Jimmer Fredette (the longest serving Laker everyone forgets) at $3.5 million, and Cristiano Felicio, Andre Roberson, and Mareese Speights at an approximate combined package of $3 million - or $6.5 million. Then, the summer after that, it's so long to Corey Brewer's $5.7 million, and increasingly likely, Aaron White's $2.8 million. That's a total of $15 million over two seasons, and we're not calculating in Kaleb Tarczewski's ~$1 million this season or next, because the way he's playing, he's high on the re-sign priority list. All told, that should be enough to avoid significant luxury tax penalties, even if everyone returns, but that all depends on Wright and Randle's RFA contracts.
There's also the question of if Randle does command a huge RFA salary, will it make sense to be paying both him and Monroe major dollars? They're essentially the same type of player, and many have doubts as to if they would play effectively paired together, given their duplication. On the other hand, keeping both and Larry Sanders will give the Lakers the strongest 3 man big rotation in the entire CSL, and if they can find the right 3 & D player in the draft or in free agency (UNLV's Patrick McCaw has repeatedly been linked, given the GM's ties to the university and fit for the roster's needs), they should be a deadly force even without a bona fide superstar on the level of Kevin Durant, Eric Bledsoe, Blake Griffin[/b], etc.
So would it make more sense for one of Monroe or Randle to be traded? To be clear - I don't see a move happening this year. Terry Stotts is on the playoffs or bust hot seat, and the Lakers, after seeing the lukewarm market for Larry Sanders prior to the Monroe trade, believe they won't see the return they want. Remember, this is a team and GM that have a long history of sitting on players until the right offer comes along (See: O.J. Mayo, DeMar DeRozan, Giannis Antetokounmpo, etc.) But a deal could happen next season, once they know what they have following the draft and free agency.
That's not to say the team is done this year. I could see a small move percolating around White or Brewer - the former as a project player for a rebuilding team, the latter a final rotation piece for a contender. Everyone else either carries value to the Lakers financially as an expiring, is someone they want to hang on to, or simply carries little to no trade value. But I do think more and more that the team is going to wait and see what they have first after this summer and into next season - in fact, this may be the last swap change the Lakers make until next season's trade deadline. Which would be a rarity for a Jestor run franchise to go that long without a deal, but it's also something I realistically can see playing out."
