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Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

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lakeshowak7
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Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by lakeshowak7 »

"Mr 30 and 10 on 38% shooting."

"He will never shoot close to 50%, but 43-44% might be possible."

"The only question is, can he stay on the court?"

"Stanley Johnson might score a bunch of points but like you pointed out, it will be on poor % so that doesn't make him that valuable of an asset unless gm's prefer 28-12 on bad %'s."
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Stanley Johnson has always welcomed adversity.
Just a few of the comments that have been made by various scouts and General Managers across the CSL. Some wondered if the draft pick was a major mistake - should they have traded it or drafted a safer option such as Jahlil Okafor who does not have nearly the ceiling that SJJ has and likely wouldn't have been great value at 3 considering trade value come draft day in the CSL?

Stanley's raw statistics are eye-popping for a 19 year old kid freshly drafted into the CSL. 15 ppg, 7 rebounds on 42% shooting.

"Many doubted that this kid would ever shoot 40% and here he is already achieving that and then some as he learns the nuisances of the game and where his spots are on the floor," Blazers General Manager Lakeshow said. "We work with him daily, showing him how to catch an entry pass into the post, how to seal his defender, how to effectively drop step to his spot on the baseline.. just everything," Lakeshow continued.

We are likely two seasons away from seeing a player that is polished and able to dominate the game the way many expect Johnson to do so. His Effective FG (eFG) is 48% which, without doing any true research into the league, it's a safe bet that number is league average or slightly above. Effective field-goal percentage is exactly the same as true-shooting percentage but without free throws considered. "When he gets inside the paint, he shoots at a high percentage - 50%, the issue is getting him to understand the limitations of his game currently and to simply make better decisions outside of his comfort areas instead of settling for bad shots," Lakeshow added.

Stanley's True Shooting (TS) is 57%, which is likely considerably above league average given historical data and a small sample of player data that was run during this article. When you consider his perceived limitations by scouts and GM's alike, this is great news for a 19 year old kid who still has quite the ceiling of potential to reach. For reference, historically any player with a TS% above 60% is considered elite. For comparison, Kevin Love currently possesses a 54% TS, a player that some scouts compared to Stanley at Stanley's absolute ceiling.

When you consider Stanley's Point Per Shots Attempted, his shooting %'s look even better - this will be presented in a subsequent article. For a 19 year old kid who is still learning the game and developing as a player at the same time, there is a lot more to be excited about then some are giving him credit for. Once Johnson becomes more comfortable with his game and is able to take greater advantage of his shooting preferences, it may be time for the league to truly take notice as he will fill boxscores on a nightly basis.

"We can't be any more happier with where Stanley is right now.. he's got a bright future -- one that is second to not many players in the CSL," Lakeshow concluded.

Jestor
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by Jestor »

54% TS is average; 60% is good and a 1.2 PPSA.

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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by Chilikonkarne »

Already 80 in ORB - what is his potential?
It was something close to 100 during scouting if I remember well right?
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OneNole
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by OneNole »

You wish you had Okafor deep down.
FINALLY a logical HC Rule our work is done

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Dennis
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by Dennis »

Chilikonkarne wrote:Already 80 in ORB - what is his potential?
It was something close to 100 during scouting if I remember well right?
My scouts say 96, definitely a very very talented player. If tactics are adjusted so that he can stay on the court for 30+ minutes, he will have a huge impact for his team.
I still do believe the Love comparison is pretty accurate. Though SSJ should be a guy capable of scoring more than love ~30 should be possible.
It's insane that he already puts up those numbers with 80 endurance.
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Rizzo
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by Rizzo »

I loved SJJ when we were scouting and were so disappointed when I realized we had zero chance of having him fall to us in the draft. I think he's going to be a monster and averaging 30 & 10 for a season isn't out of the question in my mind.
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by lakeshowak7 »

Jestor wrote:54% TS is average; 60% is good and a 1.2 PPSA.

Nylon Calculus claims 60 is elite, idk

With that in mind, I'd be willing to bet that advanced shooting %'s are a tad higher here than "real world."

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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by lakeshowak7 »

OneNole wrote:You wish you had Okafor deep down.

You will want to dump him in the similar manner that Lopez was down the road.

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bt
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by bt »

The kid looks great but the worry is if it'll be the cool thing to knock him because of his shooting. KLove is very talented but has so many critics because of his shooting (for a big) that it ultimately has lowered his value a lot given what his ratings actually are.

SJJ's future?
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andrei
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by andrei »

Rookie of the Year? Although seems that Payne is producing more wins in GSW...
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lakeshowak7
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by lakeshowak7 »

andrei wrote:Rookie of the Year? Although seems that Payne is producing more wins in GSW...
I'd love if we could calculate BOM, VORP, and win shares, but that would take a considerable amount of time to do - if we could even get our hands on the accurate formula for it.

I'd venture to say that based off pure statistics and minutes player, Stanley is producing a higher win share.

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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by Chilikonkarne »

One easy indicator and available in the game is the PER.
Stanley got a decent 12,9 but still far away from the best performer of the league.
Actually your best PER performer are benched (Pekovic and Millsap) are benched
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lakeshowak7
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by lakeshowak7 »

Chilikonkarne wrote:One easy indicator and available in the game is the PER.
Stanley got a decent 12,9 but still far away from the best performer of the league.
Actually your best PER performer are benched (Pekovic and Millsap) are benched

Per is actually not a very sound stat. For various reasons. I'll get you the article in a bit from the Sloan Conference.

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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

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PER is a quick and dirty baseline stat, but nothing more

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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by Rizzo »

Classic call into Boston sports talk radio last year from a Celtics fan. The station was discussing potential moves the Celtics could make to sure up their post defense, especially with a shot blocker. Guy calls in and says "if you guys knew anything about basketball [admittedly, this show isn't huge on hoops] you would be able to take a look at your own damn roster and see that Jordan Mickey leads the league in PER as a rookie!" Naturally, when the kid had played about 12 total minutes and probably had about six points, six boards and four blocks his PER is off the charts. That's why stats need a minutes minimum haha.
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by Beercloud »

Nice article lakeshow.

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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by GreenBear »

Surrounded by the right players, Sir Stanley has huge upside. I'm a fan.

lakeshowak7
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by lakeshowak7 »

GreenBear wrote:Surrounded by the right players, Sir Stanley has huge upside. I'm a fan.
Yup - Portland is home to the new Sir Stanley Barkley/Johnson.

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OneNole
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by OneNole »

I can see 30 and 10. Just make sure he gets those 50 shots a game.

We still thank you for allowing okafor to fall to us.
FINALLY a logical HC Rule our work is done

lakeshowak7
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Re: Stanley Johnson: Behind raw numbers

Post by lakeshowak7 »

OneNole wrote:I can see 30 and 10. Just make sure he gets those 50 shots a game.

We still thank you for allowing okafor to fall to us.
He gets 15 right now on 13 shots, and that's in his rookie season with only 1 preference in effect (2nd coming the end of this month)... If he gets 30, it will be on like 20 shots considering his FT ability.

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