Monta "Electric Eel" Ellis is leading the shocking Hawks
We've seen some fascinating starts out the gate, including teams who have overachieved relative to expectations, and one that's shockingly winless, along with other underachievers. There's also a player who has far surpassed expectations since getting major minutes other than Giannis "The Greek Freak" Antetokounmpo (19.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 4.3 assists. 0.9 steals, 1.4 blocks on 50.8% shooting by the way). There's also players who off to shockingly poor starts. The question always is are these hot beginnings signs of an unexpected conflagration, or are these brief flareups of statistical anomaly?
First up:
Atlanta Hawks (5-1)
Preseason talk centered around the Charlotte Hornets are the only ones truly capable of challenging the Orlando Magic for the Southeast crown, and yet here Atlanta is 5-1, essentially tied with the 4-0 Magic once the unknown quantity of games in hand is accounted for. The flight of the Hawks is even more surprising given that many predicted them to finish at the bottom of a lackluster Southeast - widely considered the East's weakest division.
How They Do It
A Slow, Grinding Game
No one will ever say Atlanta plays pretty basketball. They run a plodding offense, and their defense is purely half-court intense zone, with no transition pyrotechnics to speak of. Yet, it's as effective as it is ugly. Just one game has seen both teams score over 100 points - a 118-107 win over the Indiana Pacers. Furthermore they've held four of their opponents to under 90 points a game, which makes them 3rd in points allowed (93.3). They're also 2nd in FG% allowed (39.7). As part of this slow pace, they're 4th in blocks allowed, 5th in steals allowed, and T-6th in turnovers surrendered.
Of course, it wouldn't be successful if Atlanta wasn't one of the best shooting teams from the floor, ranking 4th at 48.2%, and they're skilled at hitting the boards, too - 6th with 45.7 rebounds a contest. In short, their control strategy has worked flawlessly so far.
Bench? LOL. What Bench?
On an ordinary team, PER 36 is a category that's used to hype up the trade value of bench players by some front offices, with most just rolling their eyes and ignoring it. In the Hawks' case, however, it becomes a metric to measure the true value of their starters. Just two bench players average more than 10 minutes a game - Kyle Singler and Solomon Hill, the latter who has been out since November 3rd with back spasms. 4 out of Atlanta's 5 starters average 36 minutes a game or more, and 3 of them average over 41 minutes.
As you might expect, the Hawks' statistical leaders are all in that last category. Monta "Electric Eel" Ellis is averaging 27 points, 6.5 assists, and 6.2 rebounds, shooting a career high 53.3% (previous high 48.9% in 2013 with Dallas), and a 0.83 PA/SF. Under a zone scheme, there's so few drives faced that STP % is irrelevant, and his 2.3 A/TO ratio is average for a PG. Louis Williams is having his own career year at 30, averaging 21 points on 54.8% shooting, with 4.7 rebounds and an impressive for a guard 0.7 blocks per contest. He's also dishing out 6.3 assists with a beautiful 4.2 A/TO ratio out of the SG spot with a 0.98 PA/SF.
In the frontcourt, Atlanta has two players averaging double-doubles with their high minutes. Jonas Valanciunas is a 20-10 guy on a hair over 36 minutes a game, with a steal and 1.7 blocks besides, shooting over 50% for the first time in his career at 53.7. And then there's that gorgeous 0.65 PA/SF, which is absolutely staggering to see on a player not traditionally known as a quality defender. Frank Kaminksy is the biggest example of stat inflation on the team, all 41+ minutes needed for his 13.2 points and 10.3 rebounds. He's also the weak link in accuracy, hitting just 44.8% of his shots, though he's 50% inside. His 0.52 PA/SF looks impressive, until you consider it's coming on just 4.2 shots faced a game - giving the lie to the stat and in keeping with his average overall defense.
Is It Sustainable?
Short Answer: No. Longer Answer: With the starters logging such heavy minutes, it's a question of when, not if, injuries happen. And when the likes of Omar Oraby is your best backup post player, you know you're in trouble if something happens to your first five. Also worth noting - Atlanta's played a very home-friendly schedule, with five of six games at the Phillips Arena. Futhermore, all five of their wins have come against teams that are least 2 games under .500. Everything here suggests a downward trend as the season wears on, and a sell, sell, sell strategy. Nonetheless, the Hawks have been one of the most interesting teams to watch in terms of their unique employment of strategy and style. And they're doing it with players who were on this squad last year.
Next up, a team that's been underachieving:
Blake Griffin can't believe how poorly his Knicks are playing
New York Knicks (0-6)
Considered a darkhorse and potential playoff team, the New York Knicks have fallen flat on their faces coming out of the gate, dropping six games in a row and still in search of their first win. Can't blame road woes, either - it's been an even 3-3 split. Top competition? Whilst Toronto, Boston, Orlando, Clippers, Hornets, Hawks isn't the easiest slate of games, neither is it the murderer's row lineup, and as a considered playoff team, one would think New York would have gotten at least one victory out of those 6 - especially at home against the Raptors or Clippers (6 points, 3 points respective losses).
Why Is This Happening?
Defense? What Defense?
To start off, the Knicks rank in the bottom third of almost every defensive statistical category and break the Top 15 in just one - turnovers forced, where they rank 14th at 15.2 per game. They're one of 9 teams giving up 109 or more points a contest, and teams are slicing up New York for 22 assists a game. The list goes on and on of how passive the Knicks have been at letting opponents do whatever the hell they want. It's certainly not for lack of trying - they play hard defense, but it's just not working. Like, at all.
They Score Less Than 40 Year Old Virgins
Okay, so maybe not -that- poorly. But they do rank 24th in points scored at 99.8, one of 7 teams who have an aversion to putting the ball in the basket. Some of that's down to their own slow-paced offense, but they do actually have a positive assist margin of 0.2, putting them third in team assists. But they can't shoot (43.2% - 23rd), no matter where it is on the court (33% from 3 point range - 24th), and despite their slow pace, they're outside the Top 10 in turnovers allowed (11th).
Inefficency Galore
The Knicks have a big problem - Their best 3 point shooters stink everywhere else. Michael Carter-Williams is proving, just like he did with the Lakers, that he's an efficiency killer, hitting just 42.2% of his 18.7 shots overall, despite 39.3% from downtown. Patrick Beverly is 50% from long range, and his best other shot type is inside at 31.3%. In the post there's Eran Ilyasova hitting an okay for a big 35.3%, but he's 36.4% overall and taking 11 shots a game. Then there's Norman Powell who should never shoot ever, yet is jacking up 3.5 three pointers at 23.8% and 30.6% on six shots a game. Between MCW and Ilyasova, that's 29.2 shots a game for a combined 40%, or 40% on a third of the team's average shots per game (33.5%).
Victor Oladipo is 48.9% drives stopped on a team high 15.7 drives/faced, among other defensive statistical uglinesses
Mirror images of each other Oladipo and Michael Carter-Williams are. Oladipo can't stop drives, but has 0.74 PA/SF ratio. Williams is elite at stopping drives (94.3% - 14.5 faced/game), but just like with the Lakers, poor at PA/SF - 1.0 on the button. And then there's Blake Griffin's 1.03 PA/SF - he's allowing just as many points as he himself is scoring. Oh, and Patrick Bevery is just like a worse version of MCW - 92.5% drive stop rate, but 1.18 PA/SF.
Is This Fixable?
Short Answer: Yes. Longer Answer: It starts with dumping the man defense the Knicks are trying to employ. They simply don't have the horses to be able to run it as much as they are. Utilize more zone. That's the first step. Step #2 - They're going with a slow paced scheme to get more out of Blake Griffin. This is smart. What's not smart is having Ersan Ilyasova anywhere near the lineup when Sim Bhullar of the 52.8% shooting coming off the bench. Bhullar needs to go into the lineup, pronto, Illaysova banished to the reserves. In fact, Ilyasova should probably be the 12th man. He's just toxic on this team.
As for the perimeter game? Victor Oladipo at SG is a lock. Of the options available, Patrick Beverly and Michael Carter-Williams should be at PG and SF, and New York should then take advantage of the great ballthieves they have all along the perimeter and run full-court pressure. Generating more turnovers = easier baskets for everyone and increased percentages as a result.
1 Pace
9 Full Court Pressure
4 Zone
6 Defensive Intensity
is what we recommend the Knicks experiment with, and consider changing to 5 and 5 for Zone/DI.
We'll delay the surprise player for next time, as it's publishing time here.
2020, 2023, 2027, 2035
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