Jimmer Fredette is bringing Jimmermania to the Purple and Gold
High profile pursuits of talented young RFAs Kyrie Irving and Kawhi Leonard aside, it was meant to be a quiet summer for the Los Angeles Lakers. No draft participation, and merely plucking role player talents on one year deals to fill out the roster. A fairly important trade ruffled the tranquility - a one for one swap of second year players Doug "McBuckets" McDermott for Nikola Jokic, which might net the Lakers the scoring threat they sorely lacked last season, depending on development. Then came the influx of three players from a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder - big on numbers, but low on expected impact this season, with Perry Jones III the only one expected to have a potential significant role on the team. And then the last two days hit, with free agent signings that not only created splashy headlines, but involve a total reimagining of what it is to play for a Jestorball franchise. 26 year old Jimmer Fredette, 27 year old Robin Lopez, and most of all, 29 year old Rajon Rondo have added talent to a roster that largely lacked it when the book closed on the Denver Nuggets' championship year.
The lowest wow factor belongs to Jimmer Fredette, who inked a 4 year, $14 million contract to take over the starting SG role this season before eventually transitioning into a 6th man role. With the trade of McDermott, the team lacked a 3 point gunner threat. While Jones III can get there with time and teaching, a more immediate zonebreaker was necessary. Enter Jimmermania, who like the player he replaced, was a dazzling scoring college star whom the nation fell in love with, but has seen less success at the professional level. Blessed with an even greater 3 point shot than McBuckets (Fredette shot 43.1% and 48.4% behind the arc the last two seasons as opposed to McDermott's 41% his first year in the CSL), Jimmer profiles similarly to last year's mid-first round pick. Both are sharpshooters who make their reputation on the longball and have a modicum of ability to create their own shot, though not on a first option level, with strong handling skills and frankly porous defense.
"We're hoping Jimmer's smaller size allows him to move with more fluidity against quicker guards," Lakers GM Jestor said. "That was something Doug struggled with last year, but otherwise, their backgrounds and the types of players they are... they're very similar. So for us, it was a case of have Doug for three more years on a rookie contract and then the open market in his RFA year, or have Nikola, who's really promising from a scoring standpoint, *and* a player similar to Doug, locked up on a team-attractive contract for the next four years, rather than three. It was a no-brainer, really, and we're intrigued to see if Jimmer can provide us a little better defense in our new setup."
Bearded Beanie Bros: Robin Lopez and Lakers GM Jestor
Second most important of the new Lakers is 7 foot, 255 lbs. big man Robin Lopez, noted for his exceptional ability to draw contact, solid rebounding on the offensive end, and increasingly accurate shooting percentage, going from 46.1% in the CSL's first year of existence to 49.9% last season. He signed a 4 year, $23.6 million deal to swap jerseys. Unlike the previously profiled Purple and Gold pickups, the less-regarded Lopez twin was a full-time starter the last two seasons in Portland, where he established himself as an 11/8/1.5 threat, even though he missed two months last year with a broken leg. While Walter Tavares and Nikola Jokic are expected to be the post starters, Lopez will see starter level minutes in the Carlos Boozer role, sending David West from starter to fourth big man. There's also a distinct possibility he could become the starter next to Tavares if Jokic falters and needs more time in a bench role while he develops.
"Robin is one of the more underrated bigs in the league in our opinion," Jestor remarked. "He can contribute in a lot of different areas, and flat-out produces. 76% free throw shooter for a big who can get the foul is great, and he's better at blocking shots than most people realize. While we perhaps could have gotten him cheaper than the slightly above MLE deal we signed him to, it continues our tradition of finding role players to lock up long-term on flat-rate contracts at very affordable prices. We viewed Robin as a fantastic system fit, and after it became clear that Kyrie Irving was headed back to Cleveland, Robin became our top priority signing. He's 27, so still young enough to be a valuable piece once we enter the contender ranks."
A transformation is coming via Rajon Rondo, the stocking cap bro of Jestor
In a way, the Lakers' most controversial signing was inevitable. The Kyrie Pursuit was a clear indicator of the front office's secret biggest objective this offseason: find the point guard who could lead this team. Once Irving announced he was returning to the Cavaliers on a five year max, the team looked around. Kemba Walker was never on their wishlist - a notorious ballhog whose inefficiency spelled a perfect disaster. They checked in on Jeremy Lin, but upon discovering that Linsanity was getting a max deal, the Lakers quickly checked out. Everyone else wasn't in their sphere of interest. With one exception. Time and time again, the organization found itself looking at Rajon Rondo, drawn to him in spite of themselves and all their plans. Initial pursuit? Didn't happen. 29 was too old, everyone said. But still, the Lakers kept looking, kept talking, and without warning, jumped into the fray less than 24 hours before Rondo was due to make his decision.
Interest in Rondo, like the Lakers' own attraction to their new franchise face, started off slow, but then picked up late in free agency. 3 teams were vying for his services before the Purple and Gold entered the field, and while Rondo was holding out for the kind of big money contract won by Walker, Irving, and Lin, he was also tired of waiting. So his agent contacted all four suitors with the following edict: Make your final offer and pitch. He'll take the best one. We're done negotiating. And so the chess match began for the four franchises. A one shot deal. No matching, no discussion. This was it.
Initially, a max offer wasn't in the cards for Los Angeles, or any of the other teams involved. Regardless of the huge money thrown at the other talented point guards, including Ricky Rubio's four year in-season max extension by Charlotte's prior GM, teams were now being more careful, and looking ahead to another potentially exciting free agency class next offseason, in what's being called The Summer of Durant. The Lakers looked over the list of teams who still had cap space, and who might spring a surprise to stun the league (as they themselves would eventually do), and identified the following potential candidates (in alphabetical order):
1. Atlanta Hawks
Although they handed out a series of one year deals, the Hawks still held massive amounts of cap, and pairing Rondo with the offensively-oriented Jeff Teague in a dual point guard setup seemed like just the sort of winning trickery Atlanta was capable of. Not to mention how happy Al Horford would be, and how effective their leading scorer would become with two exceptional passers feeding him the ball. Yes, they signed Mario Chalmers, but how much higher could the Hawks soar with Chalmers off the bench, and Rondo leading the charge?
2. Indiana Pacers
Ostensibly in a transition year after trading Paul George for a barrel of young assets, but they also picked up other position talent in a deal with the Los Angeles Clippers. Jose Calderon was a complete marshmallow on defense, his solid shooting and quality floor general skills aside, so why not take on Rondo to be the veteran leader/defensive force at the point, and elevate all that bright young talent they just got?
3. Milwaukee Bucks
Rudy Gay just signed to a one year deal, and Bucks GM Dylan has been known in the past to acquire youth, and then suddenly out of the blue add quality veteran talent in a single offseason, then ship out the young assets for win now talent and instantly build a strong, capable team. He even admitted as such to the media recently that the possibility crossed his mind. No question Milwaukee would toy with the idea of a huge 1, maybe 2 year deal, to explore exactly that route - perhaps even on an initial max first year. So to beat them, a longer deal was necessary.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
They wanted Rondo back in the worst way, and even after signing Brandon Knight and retaining Nicola Vucevic (who somehow failed to get the max contract Enes Kantner did), they had money to burn, along with a very bright young post talent in John Henson and a Rookie of the Year favorite in Nick Johnson. Ironically, the trade the Thunder made with the Lakers was in large part designed to free up money to keep their point guard. Clearly, one of the single biggest threats, and a guarantee that they were one of the other contestants.
5. Orlando Magic
Acquiring Paul George clearly demonstrated the Magic were going for a win now, and WillyJakkz had a notorious reputation for making single season jumps from lottery team to borderline contender. While they publicly were content with Darren Collison as a starter, and signed Tobias Harris to an offer sheet, why not obtain Rondo with their remaining cap space for more movement upwards and have Collison, who most regard as a quality reserve, off the bench? A situation rather similar to Atlanta's.
6. Philadelphia 76ers
Money to offer a max, and a Rondo/Michael Carter-Williams backcourt to pair with undeserving Rookie of the Year, but still talented Jabari Parker and defensive big man Willie Cauley-Stein was something to seriously consider. Then, in the next draft or free agency, they could go and find their scoring big man to complete a suddenly deadly lineup. The situation most analogous to the Lakers, and while it didn't seem 100% likely, the possibility simply could not be ignored.
7. Sacramento Kings
While the Kings let Jeremy Lin walk rather than match a max offer, and they had up and coming star Elfrid Payton to take over the reins at point guard, acquiring more talent was definitely something fast-rising Sacramento was looking into. Clearly not a threat from a major money perspective, but the roster was arguably the best and most complete of any of the possible candidates. And the Kings landing Rondo would further destroy the value of the pick the Lakers held, already likely to be a mid-late first.
Ultimately, the situation the Lakers were faced with was the following: in terms of total talent, even with the Fredette and Lopez signings, ranked last among the contenders. While the front office believed that nobody could pitch as well as they could, the final deciding factor was going to be money. A high ranking team official put it bluntly when he anonymously revealing the interior dialogue over Rondo:
The team walked through the finances before the pitch meeting with Rondo and his agent, and then discussed them when the duo arrived as the initial point in a long, detailed discussion and pitch. An anonymous source leaked transcripts of the meeting, allowing a glimpse into the conversation:We could opt not to pay Rondo big bucks, but if we lost him by a few million dollars, we'd feel pretty damn salty. Point guard talent in this league is still quite low on the elite end, which is why you saw everyone of quality at the position getting max deals this summer. We knew we were behind the 8 ball in terms of our immediate win capacity, so if we were going to lure Rajon here, we need to not only pitch the way we knew we were capable of, but we also needed to show him that money love. Why did we do it? Because there's three ways to acquire topflight talent in this league: draft it, which is an uncertain science and needs development time; trade for it, which requires additional asset expenditure we had no interest in making; or sign it, which involves cap space, and cap is free.
The meeting then went on to discuss things such as the roster composition, both for the next season and in the future, the detailed four year plan to ramp the Lakers from lottery team to contenders within that window - something Jestor has done before - scheme setup, and the opportunity Rondo had to be part of an extremely compelling, well-publicized redemption narrative. In the end, the money and the pitch, which an ecstatic Rondo described as "Perfect, just perfect" sealed the deal. The transformation was complete.We want to begin our pitch by talking finances, because that's key to understanding our overall short and long-term strategy.
We started this offseason with $46,679,378.
Through trade and FA signings, including one pending, we acquired the following salaries:
Perry Jones III - $2,038,206
Jeff Green - $9,200,000
Andre Roberson - $1,210,800
Jimmer Fredette - $3,500,000
Robin Lopez - $5,900,000 (TBA once the paperwork is in, but he's already signed it)
Which totals $21,849,006, leaving us $24,830,372.
Subtract the $21,000,000 we're going to offer Rajon, and we're left with $3,830,372, which will go to a couple of minimum salary signings to round out the roster.
Next Season's Expirings
David West - $12,600,000
Jeff Green - $9,200,000
Andre Roberson - $1,210,800 (We've already determined we'll decline the TO in his last year)
Marquis Teague - $2,023,260
The veteran minsals we sign - However much they are
So taking that base $3,830,372, we add up the contracts with that space, and we get $28,864,432. Subtract the $945k increase in Rajon's salary, the $180,943 increase in Walter's salary, and the $240,982 increase in Nikola's salary, which is $1,366,925 in total and we're left with $27,497,507. Jimmer and Robin are both on flat rate contracts, as is Jordan.
We have three first round picks, in what many are already calling the greatest class in CSL history. Let's look at the craziest scenario ever, just in terms of finances, and let's say we win all 3 top picks.
#1 slot - $4,752,400
#2 slot - $4,252,000
#3 slot - $3,813,500
$12,817,900
That would leave us $14,679,607 in cap space, or already close to a young player max offer with this scenario. Realistically that's not going to happen, and we'll have more space available than that. But if it did, and with this strong of a class as it's reported to be, that would give us three stellar starters to massively boost our team, to say nothing of the players we could add in free agency. With any lower combination of picks (for example, Sacramento looks like a probable playoff team as the situation currently stands), we still get three strong pieces, but then have more money to go after someone in FA, including a max contract for early career non-RFAs, which we're only $2.82 million away from even in this dream pick scenario.
So we have the money and we have the picks to get a lot better very, very quickly.
Rajon Rondo will be the engine that drives the Lakers' new design
The Burning Question: Why Spend All That Money?
Everyone wants to know why it is the Lakers splashed that much money. Even with the brimming promise offered by a Nikola Jokic/Walter Tavares/Robin Lopez frontcourt, the 3 point gunning upside of Jimmer Fredette and Perry Jones III (after instructions), the still huge cap for next summer, and the promise of three first round picks in an exceptional draft, 2 of which should be lottery, or close to it, in Los Angeles and Utah (the latter particularly after the departure of Enes Kantner), that isn't enough to satisfy most observers. Let us then count the ways.
1. Rajon Rondo, in addition to his defensive brilliance, is the CSL's best passer.
An independent scouting agency recently released their rankings of players' abilities, and one thing immediately jumps out: Only Chris Paul is as adept a passer as Rondo, and only six players in the entire league pass the 80 threshold on the agency's 1-100 rating. The list:
That's heady company, and the Lakers have determined that under the current rules setup, a dazzling passer is better than the most secure ballhandler, contrary to traditional Jestorball philosophy. Such is also why they declined to give Jeremy Lin a max - while Linsanity is a great passer in his own right, he doesn't even come close to Rondo's level. More to the point, even with that distribution talent, Lin has never averaged even so much as 5 assists over a complete CSL season despite a consistent 32-33 MPG starter role. Compare that to Rondo, who averaged 7 and 6 assists respectively the last two years, averaging 34.3 and 32.2 MPG in the same time span.Chris Paul - 88
Rajon Rondo - 88
John Wall - 85
Ricky Rubio - 85
Bryce Cotton - 82
LeBron James - 81
2. Acquiring Rondo not only fills the CSL's most important position, but he makes the Lakers a far more attractive destination next summer.
Yes, the Lakers could have sat on their cap, and carried on with their initial plan of filling the roster with min-sals after landing PJ3, Fredette, and Lopez, but the draft would then have turned into needing to invest heavily in all three perimeter positions, spread out over through three picks. And, as the official previously noted, there's a waiting for development unless a Bryce Cotton type is available. Rondo means no waiting, and the Purple and Gold can focus their efforts heavily on the wing spots, as their frontcourt is already set for the next several years (though if a true franchise talent like Joel Embiid is in the offing, Los Angeles will certainly not turn away from him.
But having a premiere point guard in addition to their young talent also means the Lakers will be well-primed to lure talent upgrades with the cap space they have next summer, which will further increase the chance of a Year 2 jump to the playoffs, with expected contending by Years 3 and 4 of Rondo's contract. No Rondo = a much more difficult time convincing players to sign on, even with the organization's highly polished media and pitch machine. And it also means that still gaping hole to run the offense, which no longer exists, thanks to this headline-grabbing signing.
3. By himself, Rondo will not be enough to generate a significant increase in wins next year.
This is an understated, but key point. While he's capable of taking over games (15 games of 20+ points last year, including 22 points and 8 assists in the first round clincher over the Blazers in the playoffs, and a 35 point outing), Rondo is not in and of himself a primary scorer, and is most effective when he has one or more to distribute to. As a result, while the Lakers might well exceed last year's 18 game win total, they're not going to be in any danger of plummeting to the late lottery until they get that #1 option for Rondo to feed.
4. Rondo is now the catalyst and lynchpin for a complete makeover of Jestorball that plays directly to the Lakers' current strengths.
The fourth and final reason why Rondo got his is arguably the most important. Over the last two years, analysts nationwide have talked about the need for Jestorball to get away from the high octane offense that emphasized efficiency and ball security into something more capable of challenging for championships in the current league climate. Last season saw the CSL's TV ratings, overall attendance, and profit decline sharply after the league instituted emergency rules to shut down the '80s level of scoring in the early season. While it corrected the immediate problem, it forced a league uniformity in play that turned off fans nationwide. Faced with the fiscal bleeding crisis, the head honchos turned to Georgia Tech University in Atlanta, GA, where researchers had preliminary findings that it was possible to again open up the rules to allow for a genuine variety of play styles while still holding down the earlier video game-style scoring numbers. Through more research sponsored by the league, the CSL confirmed those initial findings, and to much fanfare and praise from the media, announced new rules that would once more allow for personality and team identities to develop.
It's a situation that benefits players like Rondo individually, and teams like the Lakers immensely. With the bulk of their efficiency in the paint, and strong defenders at point guard and center, the team can structure their scheme around Rondo and the trio of Tavares, Jokic, and Lopez by instituting a high pressure man to man defensive system that plays at a low pace designed to get the ball in the paint to the bigs and limit Rondo's turnovers. The Purple and Gold's new point guard will also see his shooting accuracy and point production spike due to a full court pressure, something the Lakers found in their own research.
"Basically, we looked at the success the Rh0xxy Rampage system had in turning guards who may not have had the most stellar efficiency in the past into players with good, or even exceptional shooting numbers as a result of racking up steals early in the possession for the high percentage, open-look shots," Jestor said. "It's something we saw time and time again, so essentially, what we're now installing is a hybrid of traditional Jestorball principles and Rh0xxy Rampage philosophy. We think that has a very good chance of turning Rajon into something truly special, and maximizing his talents; maybe even getting him back to the All-Star form of his earlier NBA career."
It'll be Jestorball as the world has never seen it, and though the immediate dividends may not be visible this season, as a long-term strategy, it could well be the very thing that restores the Lakers to their former NBA glory, under the guise of a strange, new, yet still wonderful CSL identity as embodied in Rajon Rondo himself.
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