Pelicans Hopping Forward
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:20 am
New Orleans May Have A Quiet Offseason
Olivier-Maxence Prosper might be the most exciting offseason acquisition for the Pelicans
Much has been written about how New Orleans Pelicans GM Jestor completely transformed the team from a veteran squad bogged down by lengthy, expensive contracts to a sleek young rebuilding team with a clear plan forward, so we won't belabor the point here. And so long to Devonte Graham, Deyonta Davis, and Cheick Diallo once the free agency window hits - they'll all be renounced and set free to go find new homes this summer.
Instead, we'll talk about the 14 players on the roster - their season, projections, and how they might or might not figure into New Orleans' long-term plans.
Point Guard
Cole Anthony
There's been some interest in the 22 year old scoring combo guard who averaged 10.3 points and shot 38.4% from 3 point range in a bench PG role last season. One of the biggest questions facing his future CSL career - is he a viable starting guard in this league, or does he cap out as a 6th man combo guard of point production? Certainly he could use some instruction in bombing it away from 3 - right now he spends far too much time in the interior, to the detriment of his production. Some teams inquired about him last season, but no offers came that interested New Orleans.
Alessandro Pajola
The 2nd round pick taken late in the 2nd round last year shows real promise as a solid bench point guard by the eye test, but he too, needs more coaching - to get away from spraying just 3 point shots to also focus on his impressive in small sample-size midrange game. The Italian is far better defensively than Anthony, and is frankly a better two-way player. Given the starting SG, don't be surprised if his defense gets him the nod as the starting PG over the offense-oriented Anthony. He'll also generate more assists.
Shooting Guard
Tyrese Maxey
Don't let the 38.2% FG shooting fool you. His TS % is 54.2 - 2nd highest on the team. Why? Because he was coached up to hit only 3 pointers as the season went on. Yes, his scoring numbers and shot attempts dropped significantly as a result, but the increased efficiency made him a better player. And it increased the penalty for daring to zone the team. Get wrecked by the player entering the fourth year of his contract if you do. His defensive metrics (DSR, TOFC, PA/SF) all looked much better than you'd imagine to hear the scouts tell it, and he's firmly entrenched as a cornerstone. Needs a full year to determine how his defense looks in New Orleans' system.
Brandon Boston Jr
A late first round pick, he was part of the Fred Van Fleet for Damian Jones package trade with Dallas last year, and his rookie season in the Big Easy was as hard as you'd expect an incredibly raw rookie to be. There's upside here, but finding minutes will prove difficult in the crowded Pelicans wing rotation. His name is one that comes up often in trade talks, but like Anthony, there's been nothing that moves the needle.
Talen Horton-Tucker
Became a front-office favorite last year after coming over in the Maxey trade as a ballthief with good handling for a 2 who could unexpectedly pop off on offense. That said, he's something of a riverboat gambler - if he can't get the steal, he's often left flat-footed and the opponent blows right past him. He'll have to earn his PT again this year as Maxey's backup in the logjam of wings.
Small Forward
Aaron Wiggins
The team's best shooter by both basic and advanced metrics, he also plays absolute stellar defense and is tasked with guarding the opposition's top player night in and night out. Carries the underrated label because the eye doesn't say all that flashy, but he just makes his team better. Longest-serving Pelican starter last season with a positive ON and at 27, he's right on the cusp of sticking around for the rebuild or getting dealt. It depends on what trade assets come in for him.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
He's firmly penned in as the backup SF and may well flex out to PF. God mode offensive rebounder when he develops, with exceptional defense, and a strong interior game that will perfectly counterbalance Maxey's downtown exclusivity when OMP is ready to graduate to the starting lineup and move Wiggins to the bench. Remember Thaddeus Young that a draft head made a direct comp to OMP? Yeah. It's that kind of situation.
Josh Minott
Mr. Irrelevant definitely looks relevant once he develops, and since all of these other wings are gone after this year (with the exception of perhaps Wiggins if he isn't dealt), Minott will be the one who gets the nod for some developmental PT while they perhaps coach up his shooting. OMP is obviously the biggest coaching priority this year, but keep an eye out for this space as well.
Josh Jackson
Extremely talented player, but one who hasn't put it all together yet on the Pelicans and lost his starting job to Wiggins, settling into a backup role. He's a prime trade candidate but any offer a team makes for him will have to be more valuable than his $6 million expiring contract. And that's the case with a lot of these players who could be shipped out - is the money more valuable than the return? Great defender by scouts and metrics alike, though. He's just getting pushed out by the youth movement. So it goes.
Darko Bajo
Want to know how deep these past two draft classes have been? Bajo was a late first rounder in his class. Minott, who the Pelicans coaches told me is, "Bajo with shooting and worse ballhandling" was the last pick in the most recent draft. The front office absolutely loves Bajo and ran him out as the starting SG for 19 games, where he outplayed his talent before settling into a bench role. He's gone after this season if not dealt before then, to find a second contract elsewhere.
Anthony Gill
A lot like Josh Jackson - solid defender and rebounder (and a promising slasher if his shooting mechanics and playstyle gets corrected). But just doesn't fit with how the Pelicans have things set up. Could very well be the first one of this glut of wings to get moved out.
Power Forward
Wemby
He played like the raw, raw rookie that he is, but stumbled his way into 2nd All-Rookie Team anyway. The franchise star will be forthcoming eventually. It'll just take a while to get there. He'll flex between starting PF and backup CE assuming no other PFs get added, or if Collins is shipped out, he could find himself starting at the 5.
Center
Zach Collins
The simply solid, steadying veteran presence at CE. Philadelphia misses him and would love to have him back. League consensus is that he's underrated. He's also got a $9 million team option for next season, so expect the price of a first round pick or legitimately good youth as the demanded return - elsewise, the Pelicans will simply play out the string.
Santi Aldama
Bust. Here to get paid to sit on his ass and then see if someone gives him a second contract somewhere.
Free Agency
The Pelicans will have a max contract in cap space, and it's an open secret that they'll give former Jestor draftee Tyrese Haliburton a max contract on Day 1 of free agency to come be the starting PG next to Maxey. That's almost certain to get matched, and after that, who knows? There's one slot open on the roster as of this writing, and the only thing we know is that it won't be filled by a SG or a SF.
Present Lineup
PG War between Anthony and Pajola
SG Tyrese Maxey
SF Aaron Wiggins
PF Wemby
CE Zach Collins
6th man SF/PF Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Backup PG Whoever loses the war
Backup SG Maybe David Boston gets a crack, maybe THT
Getting minutes backup SF Minott
Maybe 3rd string SG/PF Bajo
Present only because he's a body there 4th string PF/3rd string CE Santi
***Collecting a check inactive***
Jackson
Gill
Olivier-Maxence Prosper might be the most exciting offseason acquisition for the Pelicans
Much has been written about how New Orleans Pelicans GM Jestor completely transformed the team from a veteran squad bogged down by lengthy, expensive contracts to a sleek young rebuilding team with a clear plan forward, so we won't belabor the point here. And so long to Devonte Graham, Deyonta Davis, and Cheick Diallo once the free agency window hits - they'll all be renounced and set free to go find new homes this summer.
Instead, we'll talk about the 14 players on the roster - their season, projections, and how they might or might not figure into New Orleans' long-term plans.
Point Guard
Cole Anthony
There's been some interest in the 22 year old scoring combo guard who averaged 10.3 points and shot 38.4% from 3 point range in a bench PG role last season. One of the biggest questions facing his future CSL career - is he a viable starting guard in this league, or does he cap out as a 6th man combo guard of point production? Certainly he could use some instruction in bombing it away from 3 - right now he spends far too much time in the interior, to the detriment of his production. Some teams inquired about him last season, but no offers came that interested New Orleans.
Alessandro Pajola
The 2nd round pick taken late in the 2nd round last year shows real promise as a solid bench point guard by the eye test, but he too, needs more coaching - to get away from spraying just 3 point shots to also focus on his impressive in small sample-size midrange game. The Italian is far better defensively than Anthony, and is frankly a better two-way player. Given the starting SG, don't be surprised if his defense gets him the nod as the starting PG over the offense-oriented Anthony. He'll also generate more assists.
Shooting Guard
Tyrese Maxey
Don't let the 38.2% FG shooting fool you. His TS % is 54.2 - 2nd highest on the team. Why? Because he was coached up to hit only 3 pointers as the season went on. Yes, his scoring numbers and shot attempts dropped significantly as a result, but the increased efficiency made him a better player. And it increased the penalty for daring to zone the team. Get wrecked by the player entering the fourth year of his contract if you do. His defensive metrics (DSR, TOFC, PA/SF) all looked much better than you'd imagine to hear the scouts tell it, and he's firmly entrenched as a cornerstone. Needs a full year to determine how his defense looks in New Orleans' system.
Brandon Boston Jr
A late first round pick, he was part of the Fred Van Fleet for Damian Jones package trade with Dallas last year, and his rookie season in the Big Easy was as hard as you'd expect an incredibly raw rookie to be. There's upside here, but finding minutes will prove difficult in the crowded Pelicans wing rotation. His name is one that comes up often in trade talks, but like Anthony, there's been nothing that moves the needle.
Talen Horton-Tucker
Became a front-office favorite last year after coming over in the Maxey trade as a ballthief with good handling for a 2 who could unexpectedly pop off on offense. That said, he's something of a riverboat gambler - if he can't get the steal, he's often left flat-footed and the opponent blows right past him. He'll have to earn his PT again this year as Maxey's backup in the logjam of wings.
Small Forward
Aaron Wiggins
The team's best shooter by both basic and advanced metrics, he also plays absolute stellar defense and is tasked with guarding the opposition's top player night in and night out. Carries the underrated label because the eye doesn't say all that flashy, but he just makes his team better. Longest-serving Pelican starter last season with a positive ON and at 27, he's right on the cusp of sticking around for the rebuild or getting dealt. It depends on what trade assets come in for him.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
He's firmly penned in as the backup SF and may well flex out to PF. God mode offensive rebounder when he develops, with exceptional defense, and a strong interior game that will perfectly counterbalance Maxey's downtown exclusivity when OMP is ready to graduate to the starting lineup and move Wiggins to the bench. Remember Thaddeus Young that a draft head made a direct comp to OMP? Yeah. It's that kind of situation.
Josh Minott
Mr. Irrelevant definitely looks relevant once he develops, and since all of these other wings are gone after this year (with the exception of perhaps Wiggins if he isn't dealt), Minott will be the one who gets the nod for some developmental PT while they perhaps coach up his shooting. OMP is obviously the biggest coaching priority this year, but keep an eye out for this space as well.
Josh Jackson
Extremely talented player, but one who hasn't put it all together yet on the Pelicans and lost his starting job to Wiggins, settling into a backup role. He's a prime trade candidate but any offer a team makes for him will have to be more valuable than his $6 million expiring contract. And that's the case with a lot of these players who could be shipped out - is the money more valuable than the return? Great defender by scouts and metrics alike, though. He's just getting pushed out by the youth movement. So it goes.
Darko Bajo
Want to know how deep these past two draft classes have been? Bajo was a late first rounder in his class. Minott, who the Pelicans coaches told me is, "Bajo with shooting and worse ballhandling" was the last pick in the most recent draft. The front office absolutely loves Bajo and ran him out as the starting SG for 19 games, where he outplayed his talent before settling into a bench role. He's gone after this season if not dealt before then, to find a second contract elsewhere.
Anthony Gill
A lot like Josh Jackson - solid defender and rebounder (and a promising slasher if his shooting mechanics and playstyle gets corrected). But just doesn't fit with how the Pelicans have things set up. Could very well be the first one of this glut of wings to get moved out.
Power Forward
Wemby
He played like the raw, raw rookie that he is, but stumbled his way into 2nd All-Rookie Team anyway. The franchise star will be forthcoming eventually. It'll just take a while to get there. He'll flex between starting PF and backup CE assuming no other PFs get added, or if Collins is shipped out, he could find himself starting at the 5.
Center
Zach Collins
The simply solid, steadying veteran presence at CE. Philadelphia misses him and would love to have him back. League consensus is that he's underrated. He's also got a $9 million team option for next season, so expect the price of a first round pick or legitimately good youth as the demanded return - elsewise, the Pelicans will simply play out the string.
Santi Aldama
Bust. Here to get paid to sit on his ass and then see if someone gives him a second contract somewhere.
Free Agency
The Pelicans will have a max contract in cap space, and it's an open secret that they'll give former Jestor draftee Tyrese Haliburton a max contract on Day 1 of free agency to come be the starting PG next to Maxey. That's almost certain to get matched, and after that, who knows? There's one slot open on the roster as of this writing, and the only thing we know is that it won't be filled by a SG or a SF.
Present Lineup
PG War between Anthony and Pajola
SG Tyrese Maxey
SF Aaron Wiggins
PF Wemby
CE Zach Collins
6th man SF/PF Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Backup PG Whoever loses the war
Backup SG Maybe David Boston gets a crack, maybe THT
Getting minutes backup SF Minott
Maybe 3rd string SG/PF Bajo
Present only because he's a body there 4th string PF/3rd string CE Santi
***Collecting a check inactive***
Jackson
Gill