Frank Ntilikina may be an All-Star, but he wasn't it for the Pelicans
Recently, I conducted a semi-deep dive into the New Orleans Pelicans' three starting lineup phases this season - the Pre-Jestor Era, the Malik Monk Period, and the Tyrese Maxey Early Epoch. Some fascinating results emerged from my perusal.
The Frank N-Lauri-Bamba Era
Team Record: 5-26 (.161)
Through the first 31 games, the Pelicans ran out a lineup of Frank N-Nick Weiler-Blabb/Anthony Gill/Lauri/Bamba, whose 277.7 minutes is second-highest of the season and posted gristly numbers of -75, -9.7 PER, -15.1 Net Rating. They were especially atrocious on the defensive end, with a 120.3 Defensive Rating. It's a common thread we see with a lot of Lauri lineups that persistently posted north of 120 D-Ratings, despite accomplished perimeter defenders on paper and a solid defensive CE. To put this in context, even the Phoenix Suns destroy how the team performed during this stage.
The Malik Monk Show
Team Record: 5-18 (.278)
New Orleans' longest-running lineup (299.9 minutes) this season of Monk/Darko Bajo/Aaron Wiggins/Lauri/Bamba posted dramatically different results: +30, +3.6 PER, +3.8 Net Rating, and the team had a +10.7% increase in win percentage. Offensive Rating jumped from 105.1 to 114 - understandable given the addition of an efficient alpha scorer in Monk - but more puzzlingly saw its Defensive Rating noticeably improve from 120.3 to 110.2, despite losing two excellent perimeter defenders in Frank N and NWB. How? The answer, of course, is Wiggins, who has very quietly been an absolutely stellar stabilizing force as a 3&D SF, and Bajo's 6'11 length at the 2 wreaking havoc on 3 point shooters who had to try and fire over a very tall glass of water indeed. These two factors, along with Gill's dreadful underperformance relative to his scouted talent, more than makeup for the loss in defense at the PG position. Worth Noting: This lineup would be tied for 24th in the league with the Clippers had it run all season long.
Tyrese Maxey Flash Appearances
Team Record: 2-1 (.667)
Cue the small sample size sirens here. Due to niggling injuries to Deyonta Davis and Tyrese Maxey, the new lineup of Devonte Graham/Maxey/Wiggins/Davis/Zach Collins has only played three games and 48.4 minutes together. But what we've seen in that tiny taste (an upset stunner in Sacramento, a pulverization by Portland, and a narrow 2-point triumph over Toronto) has been tantalizing: +11, +8.2 PER, +13.6 Net Rating. Over double the PER on a 36 basis, and almost triple the net rating compared to the Malik Monk lineup. How? A 90.9 Defensive Rating due to swapping Lauri out for a far better defender in Davis, massive defensive upgrade at PG in Graham, and a roughly equivalent defender to Bamba in Collins. Of course, the Offensive Rating is down to 104.5 - the worst of the three lineups profiled here, as expected when you have only one scorer in Maxey, and he not near Monk's levels of efficiency - but the defense has been so overwhelmingly excellent that it hasn't mattered and, more importantly, has translated into wins.
And the Top 5 highest TS % players on the team?
1. Wiggins (59.6%)
2. Maxey (54.2%)
3. Diallo (53.6%)
4. Graham (53.2%)
5. Davis (53.1%)
(Collins is next at 49.1%)
Former Lineup Players:
1. Monk: 62.6%
2. Lauri: 54.1%
3. Frank N: 53.4%
4. Bamba: 53.7%
5. Gill: 48.9%
Here we see the huge disparity between Wiggins and Gill: Far superior TS% and much better defensive metrics besides, which I won't dig into here. That shows just how critical that switch has been in terms of posting far superior lineups to the awful first version.
And Maxey has been roughly equivalent to Lauri from a TS and pretty close USG % (26.2 for Lauri; 28.1 for Maxey). EFG %? 48.4 for Maxey to 47.9 for Lauri. On the defensive side of the ball? 1.11 PA/SF and 1.1 TOFC for the former Mr. Pelican; 0.89 PA/SF and 1.4 TOFC for Maxey.
"That's another one of the huge differences you're seeing," said an East scout who watched a lot of Maxey's games in Philadelphia. "They're pretty much swaps for each other in efficiency and usage, but Maxey has put up sterling numbers on defense while Lauri is constantly getting beat up defensively in the paint. You look at the scouting and wonder how that's even possible, but Maxey can contribute to disruption via turnovers some, whereas Lauri is not a shotblocker to save his life."
"I also think you're going to see the Pelicans surprise some people down the stretch in terms of their win totals if everyone can stay healthy. That group of five just plays exceptionally well together and Jestor's old favorite, Cheick Diallo, has been a godsend in terms of improving the bench unit's post play."
