This engine and streaks

[Silogical]

A theory I have with this engine and streaks. I feel this engine could have a system to put teams where they belong which actually makes it feel like the engine is full of small streaks. The theory is after you win more than expected you have a chance to trigger a negative effect, and after you lose more than expected you have a chance to trigger a positive effect. Ive been casually looking at dashboards and the % the game gives each team. Sometimes they feel about right, sometimes they feel off 15-20% and once in awhile they feel off 30-40%.

If you win too much and trigger the negative effect youre chances of winning will go down 15-20% until it triggers back to normal and vice-versa. It seems to be just a chance to trigger so its tough to predict when it will happen. Youd think it will trigger for Denver soon. In the long-term you can feel at some points your team feels strong then it switches and your team feels weak.

My game vs sac is an example of when a team in the negative faces a team in the positive. Typically youd think id be around 65% favored at home vs sac, but they went 0-6 and based on this theory triggered the positive and I triggered the negative so the odds changed 30-40% leaving me as a home dog.

Right now it looks like NY recently hit the negative after their recent strong performance. Id expect them to be 75% at home vs CHA, but if the theory has any weight they will only be 55-60% favorites.

There could be more than one layer to this. MIN couldve been in the positive lost to OKC while in the positive and got another boost. Now they have been so far boosted they are expected to beat POR and NY by 20 points today.

Utah may have recently triggered the boost as they were 90% vs PHX and are now 90% vs ORL. Its a bad time to play MIN and UTAH as it looks like the engine wants them where they belong.

Reasons against the theory, the dashboard win% seems to have its own variance. Ive only been casually looking at the dashboards and could be looking for something that isnt there. Denver is an argument agaisnt the theory. I dont see gary programming something like this in.

Just a random theory that id probably bet against, but found it interesting how things kept lining up.

[KW]

we've gone LLWLWWWWLLLWWWLLLWLLLWWWW this season, and we saw very similar streaks last year.

I definitely subscribe to the idea the engine artificially creates streaks.

[Silogical]

we've gone LLWLWWWWLLLWWWLLLWLLLWWWW this season, and we saw very similar streaks last year.

I definitely subscribe to the idea the engine artificially creates streaks.

do you believe streaks is the purpose or that the purpose is to keep teams where they belong which as a side effect creates streaks?

[KW]

we've gone LLWLWWWWLLLWWWLLLWLLLWWWW this season, and we saw very similar streaks last year.

I definitely subscribe to the idea the engine artificially creates streaks.

do you believe streaks is the purpose or that the purpose is to keep teams where they belong which as a side effect creates streaks?

Nah I don't think there's a hidden agenda behind that to predetermine where teams should be at the end of the year

[Silogical]

I dont know why he'd randomly program in streaks. I could see an unlikely scenario where in the single player mode he doesnt want someone to build a 60 win team to go on and win 30 and think the engine sucks. So he puts in a system to prevent the extremes.

[andrei]

quite common among game developers to do that. Theory is that it makes it more addictive

I remember NBA Hangtime was a good example. Try to get a 20 point lead there and you'll be bricking it like crazy until its a tied game. League of Legends is another good example of artificially increasing or decreasing your winning % based on past performance

[cb4raptorscb4]

So you're saying we will win tonight? Thank you

[TheTwoWallaces]

ah so that's why we're 5-20

[GreenBear]

There could be more than one layer to this. MIN couldve been in the positive lost to OKC while in the positive and got another boost. Now they have been so far boosted they are expected to beat POR and NY by 20 points today.

Great to see the game thinks so highly of my team lol

[Silogical]

There could be more than one layer to this. MIN couldve been in the positive lost to OKC while in the positive and got another boost. Now they have been so far boosted they are expected to beat POR and NY by 20 points today.

Great to see the game thinks so highly of my team lol

losing by 4 in that game was a victory. MIN did end up winning both games. UTAH didnt play. Im also expecting MEM and DEN to see significant drops in their dashboard win% soon. i was expecting NY to be barely favored at home vs CHA, and I expect MIN to continue winning a bit more.

MIN = 90% so they are still boosted
NY = 32% at home vs CHA this is even lower than expected. Game does not see NY as a .600 team
MEM = 10% I think the game just said no more winning for you.
UTAH = 90% expected
DEN = 90% it didnt trigger yet but they didnt play so that makes sense.

[bt]

I guess it's definitely possible. I never like to give any Wolverine game too much credit though as from all the way back to the TPB days, I think there's a lot of paint in the game. Features that either don't work or aren't there.

For our game, the odds said we were a 70% to win haha. Then it was 70% again against the Hornets but we lost that game so we lost 6 in a row, win one we normally would lose then lose another I thought we could win.

Just not sure the game is sophisticated enough to program in streaks or catch up and balance logic. Completely get what you're saying though so I guess it's possible as the game is amazingly streaky at times.

[Flaming Homer]

I'm with BT here.

The streakiness is probably a side effect of some change they did. But who knows,

[Andrewu91]

Almost 60-70% of my games I'm the underdog on the dashboard lol. Not sure it helps or hurts any. I'm thinking it's just a basic flaw.

[Flaming Homer]

I literally never look at that chart. just another graphic gimmick without function

[mgtr81]

Ryan is mostly right, I think, when he says that many features do nothing (or close to nothing). As some of you already know, I think the game, regarding basketball itself, has become less realistic with each version. Back in the DDSPB days (first version, without any number) the basketball engine was simpler in terms of features but we got realistic results. As the game has evolved and new features have been added (shooting splits, ball actions, offensive and defensive strats, etc) that realistic outcome has been progressively missing. At least that is how I see it. When I want to really enjoy some time, I start a game in the old DDSPB. I have played later versions only to participate in sim leagues.