Draymond Green in garnet and gold is this year's only team and player lock
The overwhelming consensus is that this draft class features two franchise players in Kristaps Porzingis and Draymond Green. They will go 1-2 in that order, and since there's been no chatter of Cleveland exploring trades, Green will be a Cavalier to finally give Kyrie Irving the running mate he's so long deserved. But less certain is exactly where Porzingod, as he's been already dubbed, will be playing. The Dallas Mavericks are always active on the trade front, and the right deal could sway them into pulling the trigger.
What *is* certain about the international teenager is that he's the best prospect ever to enter a CSL draft. A sampling of scouts' praise for him:
The first future Top 5 player we've seen since the CSL launched. Even in the inaugural stacked class, he's the #1 pick without any question.
Where the uncertainty starts to cloud the draft is with the #3 pick. Sources say there's two players up for consideration, with East Coast teams generally favoring one, and West Coast teams favoring the other. "It's a really tough call," said one scout. "There's reasons to absolutely love both of them, and reasons to say okay, we like the other guy better. It's one of the best conversations to have about this class."Still has some development to do, but once that's done, whoever he plays for is a relevant force for the next 10 years, no matter who else is around him. He's just that special.
Currently, the Thunder have verbaled pick 3 for a player they believe will have a greater impact than who they might have taken. Most experts laugh at the notion, calling it yet another questionable move by a front office that has been lambasted league-wide. But there's no guarantee that this new team will keep the pick. According to anonymous sources, the verbal holder of the #3 pick is aggressively shopping it in a package with a star player to yield the kind of return that will set their franchise up for the foreseeable future. And according to rumors swirling, that may actually happen, in a jaw-dropping deal that will alter the course of at least three teams.
But stepping away from the shroud of mystery for a moment, we'd like to call another lock (in our eyes) in the draft class - one that signals a deeper concern with this year's crop overall.
Hassan Whiteside can't believe what's happening to his draft stock
Initially pegged as a mid-first rounder, Whiteside's stock quickly shot up the draft boards to a borderline Top 5 pick, and with the Pistons, who have Mitch McGary in RFA status, up against the cap, and a 30 year old to be Serge Ibaka, looked like a virtual certainty to hear his name called 4th. But reports out of Motown say Detroit's not interested in the defensive big man, and are actively looking to trade out. It sets up a scenario where a player who was once a hot commodity and a strong contender for Top 5 status has now punched his ticket to out of the Top 5.
The question is how far he'll fall. While few genuinely believe he'll crater out of the Top 10, his flaws are as glaring as his strengths, and even in a league starved for genuine centers, he could be slated for a freer drop than anyone anticipated. His max floor is certainly the lottery (more on that later), but his trajectory of meteoric rise and nosedive signals his position group's reputation in this year's class.
"I know Chad Ford and those guys were saying big man is the best position in this class," said one scout. "That's bullshit. There's two centers who will be taken in the lottery - Porzingod and Whiteside. That's it. These other guys - Boban "Bilbo" Marjanovic, Festus Ezeli, they'll still be there after the lottery, even with the Lakers needing a true five to shift Julius Randle back to the 4.
Another talent evaluator was even more emphatic in his dismissal of this year's big men. "Honestly, if you're looking for a big man starter, you either need to have the #1 pick, or you get nothing. This is overall the worst class of bigs I've ever seen outside of Porzingod. I mean, look at Whiteside - he's got the perfect landing spot, and it's looking like the Pistons are trading out of the 4 spot. If that doesn't tell you how bad these guys are, you're not paying attention. The CSL is going to keep being a game of perimeter dudes and smallball posts - it's just out and out trash. Even the reserve quality isn't that good."
So if big man is the weakest compared to initial reports, what's the strongest position in this class?
Khris Middleton headlines a stellar crop of wings
The unanimous consensus from polled scouts was that the wing spots are deep and talented in this class. One went so far as to say, "Top to bottom, I've never seen this many starter-worthy players in one position group in a class ever. It's just embarrassing how much rich talent there is here. Teams picking in the lottery are going to be absolutely spoiled for choice if they're looking for a wing starter. You want a shooter? Take your pick. Need a defensive stopper? There's at least four or five guys who fit the bill. It's just absolutely incredible how much talent you can stick at the 2 or 3 this season. If you think the league's perimeter-heavy now, just wait until these dudes come in."
While less effusive in praise, another scout concurred. "Here's how it's going to go - Porzingod, Green, who by the way could be a wing himself, though I see him as a 4, and then the rest of the lottery is going to be this megarun on wings. In fact, I'd say out of the first 14 picks, at least 9 of them are going to be rookies who have the 2 or 3 as their best position. And you might see a starter-level wing slip through the cracks into the second half of the first. And the number of lottery wings may end up even higher than that, unless you get some franchises seriously reaching for need."
And what of the last position group?
Flair Personified: Tyus Jones' game is as electrifying as his hair - but will he be the first point?
Consensus reigns here, too, in that there's two point guards who are Top 10 locks - Tyus Jones of Duke and Congolese teenager Emmanuel Mudiay. Jones has the more heady game, but as one scout says, "He'll make a play that has you swearing he's the best point guard in the league, and in the next minute, he'll just have you swearing." Mudiay, in counterpoint, despite questions about his shooting, has an extremely well-rounded game, yet lacks the pyrotechnic elite skills that brings fans out of their seats.
"Basically, you've got Option A - the gambler in Jones, and Option B - the comparatively safe pick in Mudiay," remarked a front office employee who has watched both point guards play. "I think they're both legit future starters, and in the right setup, could be All-Stars. That's valuable in a league that has a real dropoff after the top 6 or 7 point guards in the league, and is particularly lacking in quality mid-level guys in the lineup. But is either one of these guys ever going to be Top 5 PGs in the league? No - but Top 10 is a good goal for both of them to reach. And incidentally, that's exactly where they're going, though I don't think either one cracks the Top 5."
Most observers also agreed that those two would likely be the only lottery point guards selected. But unlike big men, where fury sounded at the rest of the class, there's surprisingly high praise for the other rookies below the two starters.
"Man, oh man... let me tell you, I absolutely *love* this year's points for backups," raved an East team college scout. "Off the top of my head, there's at least 7 guys I would love to see as a second string point, who will take over as a fifth starter in injury and not hurt you. The CSL is getting a real gift this year at a position that sorely needed depth. You're going to see a lot of these guys have long, journeyman rotation careers - especially since most of the league's best backups are getting up there in years."
A Western counterpart agreed, "Once you start getting into the back half of the first, I think we'll start to see a flurry of point guards like everyone is expecting on wings in the first half. The players who are currently backup ones in the league? Lot of those guys are looking at min-sal deals or the D-League. That's just how much reserve talent is on its way for this thirsty ass league."
Overall Thoughts
Porzingod is love, and the #1 lock
Trade rumors are running rampant even on the eve of the Conference Finals, and much of it centers around the draft picks - especially in the Top 10. #3 is already moved, and may shift again. #4 looks like likely to head out as well. In fact, most CSL insiders say that the draft order now will not at all resemble what it ends up as. One source said he expects no more than 5 or 6 of the lottery picks to stay with their original teams, laying it out as follows:
"#2 - Cleveland is taking Green and being damned happy about it.
#6 - You hear that salivating sound? That's the Grizzlies waiting to gnosh on their pick of the defensive wings litter.
#9 - Have the Knicks even done much scouting? If not, they need to move this, but as of right now, nothing seems imminent.
#13 - Orlando doesn't appear to be moving this selection, so I'm going to go ahead and say they stay.
Now, it's possible the Mavericks don't move as many of their picks as I think they will, but I believe it's going to happen. I also think the Kings are guaranteed to move #12, the Wizards have been talking to a lot of people about #10, and the Lakers have discussed packaging #11 and #14 to move up into the Top 10. So it's going to be a completely different ballgame once the Detroit/Houston Finals repeat concludes and the trade office opens."
There's also repeated confirmation that while this class is deep, only the first half of the round will have starters, unless the laziness of CSL front offices results in bad picks due to lack of scouting. "The combine is going to reveal a lot," said one front office executive, "So I wouldn't bank on a starter falling past 15 unless you get lucky. Really, the second half is all about finding a backup who can play quality reserve minutes for you."
